Saturday, October 31, 2009

Illinois 38, Michigan 13

In the first half, it was the same old Illini.  They scored first but fell down 13-7 by the half as their offense went cold and their momentum frittered away.  And when Tate Forcier connected with Roy Roundtree for a 77 yard pass to seemingly put Michigan ahead 20-7, I was ready to lament yet another loss where the Illini fell apart as the game went on.  Except on review, Roundtree was down at the 1, Illinois made four straight goalline stops, then quickly rattled off a 6 play, 99 yard drive, highlighted by a 70 yard touchdown run by Mikel LeShoure. 

And suddenly, everything was different.  I had dismissed Illinois as a team that just didn't have as much talent as I once thought they did.  But maybe they were just shell-shocked after a 37-9 opening game loss and didn't have the confidence to win games they were capable of winning.  But after that series of plays where instead of being down 20-7, they were up 14-13, they finally realized they could win a game.  And the result was far and away the most satisfying game of football Illinois has played since, oh, their 45-20 defeat of Michigan last year in the Big House.  Are they really 25 points better than Michigan?  Probably not.  But for once, all the breaks went the Illini's way and they were ready to capitalize  They made huge plays over and over again in the second half, and the 79 yard touchdown run by Jason Ford to put them ahead 38-13 was just icing on the cake.  It may be too late to save a bowl berth, but for one glorious second half, it all came together for the Illini and Rich Rodriguez has to be wondering if he will still be patrolling the Michigan sideline this time next year.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Michigan at Illinois, a Prediction

I'm guessing Illinois fans don't really think there is much of a hope of beating Michigan this Saturday, especially after all the 'Michigan is back' hype in the wake of their 38-34 defeat of Notre Dame.  Yet the mood among Michigan fans isn't very optimistic either after they lost 35-10 at home to Penn State last week.  From reading some Michigan blogs, my impression is that the Michigan fans are gearing up for the worst this weekend.  I knew that the Wolverines had faded a bit after a strong start, but I was surprised to see just how bad they have been in conference play:



Their in-conference numbers really aren't any better than Illinois' (4.8 yards per play on offense, 6.3 yards per play allowed on defense) and they've played a lot of the same Big 10 opponents (Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana).  QB Tate Forcier has remembered that he's a true freshman, the ground game has stalled, and the defense has been mediocre apart from touted DE Brandon Graham (5.5 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss). 

All that said, Michigan has played a tough Big 10 schedule and apart from the Penn State game have been competitive despite their deficit in yards per play, outright defeating Indiana, taking Michigan State to overtime, and losing to Iowa by just 2 points.  Given that, I don't think it makes sense to pick Illinois, as tempting as it may be given my incurable optimism.  But with the offense looking like it could round into form with a two-quarterback system, I like Illinois' chances of giving Michigan a game.

Pick: Michigan 24, Illinois 21

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Illini Film Study Project

This blog is certainly a labor of love, because I have a small, if loyal readership (thanks family and friends!) and yet I pour hours into analyzing team statistics.  Actually, I have done this in past years, even without a blog.  At any rate, I have felt like my analysis could still use some work, especially since I have been at a loss to pinpoint the decline of the Illinois offense.  Thus I have begun an ambitious film study project.  I already have acquired the video from the Purdue game last weekend and have begun charting plays - on offense, focusing on offensive line protection and quarterback decision-making and on defense, focusing on defensive line penetration.

Unfortunately, watching and re-watching the plays is a slow process, so I have only charted up until about midway through the second quarter (hopefully I will get something more thorough posted in the future).  That said, I have already learned a lot.  It's easy to imagine that the coaches are incompetent buffoons since there is such a negative air around the team but so far, I haven't seen much of a playcalling difference between Illinois and Purdue.  In particular, Illinois' run plays were well-designed and well-executed in the first half, and they have a lot of different looks out of the backfield - handoffs out of the shotgun, delayed handoffs, and option pitches.  The pass game, in comparison, has not looked as good to me on film (not surprising).  In the passes I've charted for Juice so far, he made two really bad decisions, one under pressure, and one while on the run.  I'd like to imagine that Jacob Charest is the savior, but he also made a bad decision on his very first throw which could have led to an interception. 

Going forward, the run game is really starting to find itself with Mikel LeShoure as the lead back.  I still think that offensive coordinator Mike Schultz is hamstringing the offense with a lack of deep pass plays (none called in the plays I have charted so far), especially considering that was the strength of the team last year, but then again, Juice also hasn't had as much time to throw.  The offensive line looked noticeably worse in pass protection than against the run.  It's also becoming more clear to me that Juice hasn't developed as a passer.  When he got good protection against Purdue, he delivered nice, accurate passes, but when under pressure or on the run, he started to force passes into coverage and lose accuracy.  I think the main difference between this year and last year is less that Juice has regressed and more that the line is giving him much less pass protection, and that the receivers aren't getting open as often, thanks to the graduation of Will Judson and the injury problems of Arrelious Benn.
As for the defense, Illinois generally runs a basic 4-3 alignment (4 linemen, 3 linebackers) with corners and safeties in loose coverage, but in the first half against Purdue, they did a good job mixing up their coverage looks and disguising blitzes before the snap.  I have the same basic playcalling qualm as I do with the offense - not enough going for broke plays - in this case, I would like to see some more blitzes instead of deep passes.  All that said, the blitzes Illinois did run in the first half against Purdue were nicely timed and usually not picked up.  Again, the problem is less the playcalling and more the execution.  Purdue was able to run all over the Illini defense in the first half because the defensive line got almost no penetration.  This forced the linebackers and safeties to scramble to make tackles, which they sometimes did, but sometimes didn't.

So at least in the first half against Purdue, I felt the difference was more in terms of talent and execution than playcalling and game preparation.  This excuses Ron Zook and the coaching staff on one front, but as I alluded to in my last post, it raises serious questions about where all the supposed talent Zook brought in is if Purdue has the superior team.  The good news is if Jacob Charest continues to develop, the offense may show some more signs of life, and the Illini ought to be greatly improved next year with a more experienced defense and the return of their running back corps.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Purdue 24, Illinois 14

Well, the Illini had their moments against an underrated Purdue team, but couldn't put it all together for a victory, dropping them to just 1-6 overall and 0-5 in Big 10 play.  The difference, ultimately, was in the pass game:

 

Illinois actually matched Purdue on the ground - although a bit less consistent, they were also slightly more explosive (a 65 yard run always helps).  Mikel LeShoure is establishing himself as the #1 running back, and the coaches recognize that.  Unfortunately, it's difficult to focus on the run when Illinois always falls behind early.  Meanwhile, Purdue established the run and QB Joey Elliott was quite effective when he did throw.  Juice continued to struggle, taking four sacks and turning the ball over twice.  He had some good plays, but continued to make crippling mistakes when under pressure.  He had a near-interception in the first quarter where he forced a pass into double coverage rather than run or throw the ball away, and driving into Purdue territory with the score 7-7, he did the same thing again, and was that time rewarded with an actual interception.

So believe it or not, I actually like Ron Zook's idea to continue using two quarterbacks - Juice and Jacob Charest.  The Eddie McGee experiment was short-lived but a failure, as McGee is a Juice clone through and through, right down to the horrifying passes into double coverage.  Charest, on the other hand, looks like a more accurate passer, though he had one bad near-interception of his own.  Some fans might want to see Charest play the entire game, but that would limit the Illinois offense, since Juice was fairly effective on designed rush plays (10 carries, 47 yards, 5 successes).  So against Michigan, I would like to see Juice be used more for quarterback runs and Charest used more for pass plays.  Then we can find out if Charest is really a more effective passer than Juice or if he is too inexperienced at this point.  Illinois is only a 7.5 point underdog against Michigan and covered the spread for the first time all season against Purdue (by a half point) so they have a chance at the very least.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Purdue Outlook and Bonus UNC Coverage


Since forecasting Illinois games is becoming ever more depressing, I am going to supplement this post with some bonus North Carolina football coverage in honor of my girlfriend, who now attends UNC.  Needless to say, there will be no bonus UNC basketball coverage but I feel there are no conflicts of interest when it comes to football.

Last night was a desperation game for both Florida State and North Carolina who each entered the season with high expectations but were both off to 0-2 starts in the ACC.  Unfortunately for the Heels, they are now 0-3 in ACC play after FSU rallied from an 18 point second-half deficit to win 30-27.  It was an interesting game going in, as UNC was 1st in defense, but 110th in offense (in terms of yards per play) while FSU was 25th in offense, 115th in defense (again in terms of yards per play).  In the first half, the Heels defense won out and the offense took advantage of short-field situations for scores but in the second half QB Christian Ponder took over for Florida State while the UNC offense flatlined.

Betsy won't like this, but ultimately the statistics show that Florida State probably should have won by more than 3 points, despite the 18-point deficit.  Not only were their offense much more explosive on a per-play basis (6.8 to 4.9) but they were also were more consistent as shown by success rate (46.2% to 30.9%).  The Heels were solid on the ground, running some end-around and reverse plays to great effect, but did almost nothing through the air.  Meanwhile, after a penalty-ridden first half, Florida State lit up the UNC defense in the second half for 338 yards and 23 successes on just 40 plays.  The Seminoles never established a running threat but Christian Ponder nonetheless threw for 395 yards. 

Unfortunately, UNC has a tough slate of games coming up with the only potential breather being a November 7 home game against Duke.  They can still reel off some wins but they will need to bring a consistent effort on defense and have their offense take advantage of short-field situations as it did against Florida State.  The stats from last night's game look bad, but I think the real problem was that the team simply let up after going ahead 24-6 in the third quarter.  It's natural, but given their offensive deficiencies, it can't afford to happen.

Well, my bonus UNC coverage wound up consuming the entire post.  But suffice it to say, I'm returning to my strategy of picking against the Illini until they prove to me that I shouldn't.

Pick: Purdue 35, Illinois 17

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Illinois at Purdue, Preview

Before last weekend, I optimistically envisioned this game as the second consecutive win in a mid-season turnaround for the Illini.  If Illinois managed to beat Indiana, they would then be playing a 1-6 Purdue team.  Except, of course, Illinois lost and Purdue isn't 1-6 after a shocking 26-18 home upset of Ohio State.  Now, Illinois is a 10 point underdog against the suddenly resurgent Boilermakers.

All that said, I disagree with Dr. Saturday's contention that "it's not like Purdue was a snake in the grass or anything."  I certainly would not have picked Purdue to beat Ohio State just because Ohio State has historically been so reliable against its Big 10 opponents.  But Purdue was absolutely better than their 1-5 record going in indicated and are better than their current 2-5 mark as well.  They lost by just 2 points on the road against Oregon (#11 in the BCS standings) and by 3 at home against Notre Dame.  On the other hand, they did have head-scratching losses against Northern Illinois, Northwestern and to a lesser extent, Minnesota.  The NIU loss was legitimately head-scratching but the Northwestern loss was a fluke, as Purdue outgained the Wildcats by over 3 yards per play but was -5 in turnover margin.  Even the 15 point loss to Minnesota was closer than it appeared as the teams were equal on a yards per play basis.  Going into the Ohio State game, it was plausible that Purdue could have been 5-1 or 6-0 had they been particularly lucky instead of unlucky (and no, this is not a stretch - just look at Iowa, which is 7-0 despite close shaves against Northern Iowa and Arkansas State) - at which point I would still have picked Ohio State but it wouldn't have seemed like such a colossal upset.

So, in that sense, it was about time that one of Purdue's opponents handed them a game, and Ohio State did just that, with 5 turnovers.  And clearly, Vegas has recognized that despite similar records, Purdue has been far more competitive than the Illini - having been outscored by just 4 points on the season whereas the Illini have been outscored by 71.  Even with a new head coach and new QB, Purdue has had a rejuvenated pass attack this year, with Joey Elliott averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt against the 6.3 of Curtis Painter last season.  Their team rushing statistics also look better since Elliott has more scrambling ability - though it's probably a wash given that sacks are included in team rushing totals.  Purdue has been slightly improved on defense from last year, primarily versus the run, though their pass defense has been respectable as well.

Purdue's pitfall, of course, has been turnovers, with 12 fumbles lost and 11 interceptions thrown, leaving them -7 in turnover margin on the season even after the +2 performance against Ohio State.  They actually have 23 turnovers to just 13 by Illinois but have also forced 16 turnovers while the Illini have forced just 9.  Part of Purdue's troubles have been bad luck, as they have lost 12 of their 17 fumbles - and fumble recovery rate is almost completely random.  But even so, 17 fumbles in 7 games is a big number, as is 11 interceptions.

So although Purdue is certainly the superior team to Illinois in terms of moving the ball up and down the field, they have already lost to inferior teams (Northern Illinois, Northwestern) thanks to their issues with turnovers and general inconsistency.  In other words, there is hope for the Illini yet, but if Purdue makes mistakes, Illinois will have to be able to take advantage of them - something they have not yet done this season.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Yards per Point

For my post yesterday, I calculated the average yards per point for NCAA football teams.  In 2008, teams averaged a point for every 13.7 yards gained, or a touchdown for every 96 yards.  Obviously, the average touchdown drive is shorter than 96 yards but every time a team drives 75 yards and only kicks a field goal or turns the ball over in the red zone, their yards per point is significantly hit.  On the other hand, teams can score touchdowns without even touching the ball on offense.  What it sums up to is that the average college football team can expect a touchdown for every 96 yards of offense.

Obviously, since this is an average, some teams will be more successful at converting yards into points than others.  Last year, the three most efficient teams in converting yards into points on offense were Florida, Oklahoma and Utah.  Perhaps not surprisingly, Florida and Oklahoma played for the national championship and Utah completed an undefeated season with a Sugar Bowl upset against Alabama. 

The question, of course, is whether converting yards into points is a skill or a matter of luck.  Something like yards per point will depend a lot on turnover margins and special teams, which tend to swing from year to year.  On the other hand, I would expect some level of skill to be involved, especially for the better teams in football.  That said, the top 5 teams in converting yards into points in 2008 have seen their yards per point ratio increase (get worse) by an average of 3.3 points in 2009.  Meanwhile, the bottom 5 teams in converting yards into points in 2008 have seen their ratios drop by an average of 3.4 points in 2009.

So what does this mean for Illinois football?  After ranking 92nd nationally in yards per point last year (thus making a potentially great offense rather inconsistent), the Illinois offense is 119th out of 120 teams this year (21.7 yards per point).  Illinois is averaging just one touchdown for every 152 yards of offense!  The good news is that with a total that low, simple bad luck comes into play.  So the Illini offense is not quite as bad as it has looked thus far this year.  With an average number of yards per point, they would be averaging 27 points per game instead of 16.5 - but an average number of yards per point is still a bit much to expect from a Ron Zook team. 

Now in most of Illinois' games this wouldn't have made a difference.  Based purely on raw yardage, they would still have been projected to lose all the games they did.  And in truth, their yardage totals are misleading considering they have racked up a lot of 'garbage time' yardage on offense in their last three games.  But the game against Indiana could very much have gone a different way if the Illini had gone up 14-13 instead of seeing Juice fumble at the 5 yard line.  Illinois actually had a superior success rate against the Hoosiers but was somewhat less explosive on a per-play basis.  Thus, I don't think that Illinois is a worse team than Indiana - considering that Indiana was at home, they are probably about even.  That may be damning with faint praise, but it offers some hope to a team that has yet to record a win against an FBS opponent.

So the good news is that the Illini offense will likely regress to the mean a bit and score a few more points than they've been scoring.  The bad news is that Ron Zook's teams have consistently undershot the average on yards per point for offense, with the offense averaging just 17.1 yards per point during his five-year tenure, and never finishing above the national mean.  Thus, although this year's team is getting unlucky, it is also a reflection on Zook's coaching that the offense has been consistently inefficient at converting yardage into points .

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Illini Football Season Statistics

Although my analysis of the Illini football season has been statistically-oriented, I have not delivered on my promise to offer exclusive Illini statistics.  Well fear no more! 

Over at Rock M Nation, a Missouri sports blog, the proprietor, Bill Connelly, has developed a system for rating the success of college teams, units and players that has also made its way into columns at ESPN and Football Outsiders.  I am going to do something similar to analyze the Illini, though not quite as advanced, for the sake of saving time. 

Basically, there are two metrics that I want to look at.  One is yards per play, which I am converting into points per play based on an average ratio of 1 point for every 13.8 yards (Note that this reflects projected points scored, not actual points scored, which is something I will discuss more tomorrow).  The other is success rate, which measures whether each play was a success.  I'm using Connelly's criteria for what constitutes a success, namely:

1st down: A play that gains 50% of required yardage is a success
2nd down: A play that gains 70% of required yardage is a success
3rd and 4th down: A play that gains 100% of required yardage is a success

Then, similar to what Connelly does, I added the team's projected points per play and success rate together - thus capturing the pure scoring rate of an offense while also capturing its play-to-play consistency (i.e., are they more dependent on one big play to score or a series of smaller plays). 

Now, for some season statistics!










I don't have a lot of data yet to put into context exactly what these numbers mean but suffice it to say that the .835 figure for the Illinois offense is probably average but the .935 figure for the defense is pretty bad (and the numbers would look a lot worse if not for Illinois' beatdown of Illinois State).  Illinois' success rate on offense (44.5%) is not that much worse than the success rate of their opponents (46.6%), but their opponents get significantly more points per play, reflecting the Illini's lack of big play ability.  Illinois has actually outperformed their opponents on the season in the run game - but again, that is skewed because of the 400 yard rushing performance against Illinois State.  Still, the run game has largely been a wash for the Illini.  Where they have been beaten badly is in the passing game.

In performing this play-by-play analysis, I counted all sacks as pass plays (since that's what they are!), which means that Illinois actually averages more points per rush than per pass, which is rare.  Generally, you would expect the passing game to have a higher points per play value but a lower success rate due to incomplete passes.  Instead, the Illini passing game has been ineffective all around with a low success rate (37.5%) and a poor ratio of points per play.  On the other side of the ball, the secondary has been regularly torched this year, yielding a 1.016 S&P+ (using Connelly's terminology for the time being - though it is not exactly the same thing).  Apart from the Penn State game, the run defense has been pretty good but the strategy of putting the corners into loose coverage has clearly not been an effective one.

Tomorrow, I will show why the Illinois offense has been rather unlucky this year and why the Illinois-Indiana game was closer than it looked, perhaps giving some positive signs going ahead.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Indiana 27, Illinois 14 and Thoughts on the Ron Zook Era

With yet another baffling and embarrassing loss, it's safe to say that Ron Zook is on the hot seat.  I watched this game from start to finish, and it is clear that Illinois is the worst team in the Big 10.  The final game statistics give some false signs of hope, but 148 of Illinois' 443 yards of offense came in the fourth quarter, after they had already fallen behind 27-7 (and even then it took the Illini 29 plays to get those yards).  Sure, Illinois had a chance to go ahead 14-13 before the critical Juice fumble on the 5, but only because Indiana had gone into the red zone three times and come out with just three points.  And it's hard to even give much credit to the Illini for stopping Indiana in the red zone given that the Hoosiers missed two field goals and had their running back fall down on 4th and 1 when he probably would have scored a touchdown.

The Illini offense was average, with a solid touchdown drive in the first half, but simply could not put anything together consistently until it was too late.  But after a nice performance in the second half against Michigan State, the defense was lost yet again, surrendering 482 yards of offense on 6.8 yards per snap.  Most galling, Indiana QB Ben Chappell threw for a career high 333 yards and 3 touchdowns.  I know the defense is young, and has only gotten younger due to a wave of injuries (LB Martez Wilson, CB Miami Thomas, and now, S Donsay Hardeman).  But it would be nice if the coaching staff would put them in a position to try and make plays.  Instead, they run the same vanilla 4-3 scheme every week with the corners 10 yards off the receivers and almost no blitzing.  Predictably, there is no pass rush and the team gets picked apart with short passes.   The other huge negative about the 'bend but don't break' style of defense is that the Illini seemingly never force turnovers.  Illinois is a remarkably bad -38 in turnover margin during the Ron Zook era and has NEVER had a positive turnover margin on the season.  This is incredible given that turnover margin is notoriously inconsistent from year to year.

I appreciate Zook's enthusiasm but it's time for me to admit that my optimism has blinded me.  Admittedly, there are more problems with this team than just coaching.  After all, Zook did coach a team to the Rose Bowl just two years ago - so it's not true that he is totally incompetent.  But what is true, both at Florida and at Illinois, is that Zook's teams consistently underachieve.  And for all his vaunted recruiting, the product on the field this year simply isn't all that talented.  The defense is young and thanks to injuries, has gotten even younger.  The offense has failed to gel.  Zook brings the players in but hasn't shown an ability to keep those players on the team or to help them develop their potential.

The root of the problem  is that Zook thinks that everything will be solved if the team just plays harder.  I have collected a series of quotations from Zook this year, which are rather damning.

"This is going to end when we decide it's going to end" - Ron Zook after the Indiana loss
"I don't think we're as far away as everyone thinks" - Ron Zook after the Michigan State loss
"I'm not sure this is the right thing to do, but it'll give us a change and we'll see" - Ron Zook after announcing that Eddie McGee would start against Michigan State
"Obviously, again, we didn't play the way we are capable of playing" - Zook after the Penn State loss
"We're in a little slump now for whatever reason and we're going to have to play our way out of it" - Zook after the Ohio State loss
"We didn't play the way we've practiced" - Zook after the Missouri loss

What's terrifying is that Ron Zook is apparently unable to see or admit that this team just isn't very good.  He still thinks that the problem is just that they aren't playing hard enough or putting it all together.  If they were playing well some weeks and not others, I could see his point, but that isn't the case.  They have been consistently outclassed by all of their opponents apart from Illinois State.  This is not a team that isn't playing hard.  This is a team that isn't very good.  That alone is a huge knock on Zook, but the biggest red flag is when the head coach can't recognize that he doesn't have a very good team.  Ron Zook is unwilling or incapable of properly analyzing the players around him.  He thinks that everything is a matter of motivation, which it isn't.  Is it a wonder that his recruits haven't developed when all Zook apparently does is tell them to play harder?  Sorry, Ron, but this season should be your last.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Indiana Outlook

Well, I ran the same simulation I ran last week, and unsurprisingly, Illinois' bowl odds have plummeted after another lackluster loss.  Just a week ago, the Illini projected to be a 6 point favorite against Indiana but Vegas is finally ditching its high preseason expectations for Illinois and has moved them to just a 2 point favorite (Actually, the line has moved up to 3.5 over the last day - this is a good sign!).  Correspondingly, Illinois' bowl odds have fallen from 35.2% to 13.6% in my simulation.  It's still not impossible but with a mean simulated finish of 4-8, the more pressing question may be whether Ron Zook will still be coaching Illinois this time next year. 

It's past time to throw out the preseason expectations.  The offense has been much worse than expected and the defense, the main question mark coming into the season, has shown why it was a question mark.  But if Illinois is going to win any games this year, now is a good time to get started.  The young defense played a lot better in the second half against Michigan State.  Arrelious Benn is healthy.  And best of all, they are playing an opponent who hasn't looked a whole lot more impressive than they have.  I'm calling for a strong, consistent performance from the defense and Juice hooking up with Benn for a long touchdown pass. 

Pick: Illinois 24, Indiana 17

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Indiana Preview

Indiana has historically been the weakest team in the Big 10, so it's not too surprising that Illinois, even at 1-4, has been posted as a road favorite by Vegas.  Yet at the same time, Illinois is only favored to win by two points over a team that was throttled 47-7 by Virginia last week.  The Illini are 0-4 against the spread this year and as such, Vegas has brought the line on this game way down from where it would have been just a few weeks ago. 

So what can we expect from the Hoosiers?  They got off to a 3-0 start, but only thanks to the kind of pathetic nonconference schedule I wish Illinois would play, with narrow wins over Western Michigan, FCS member Eastern Kentucky and a more resounding win against Akron.  Their most impressive game of the season by far was a 36-33 loss at Michigan where they actually outgained the Wolverines 467-372 but lost on a late touchdown drive by Michigan QB Tate Forcier.  Based on that performance, Indiana probably would have been favored against the Illini except for last week when they were torched by an improving Virginia team, dropping them to 3-3 on the season.

Even without QB Kellen Lewis (kicked off the team due to disciplinary problems), Indiana has a decent passing offense behind QB Ben Chappell, who is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt.  Their running game hasn't been as impressive due largely to the immobility of Chappell but the top two running backs, Demetrius McCray and Darius Willis, have been decently productive. 

Where the team has really struggled is in the secondary, giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt (even worse than Illinois!).  This flaw became all too visible for Hoosier fans when embattled Virginia QB Jameel Sewell threw for 308 yards in three quarters and Virginia racked up 536 yards of offense.  The Hoosier secondary was also embarassing against FCS Eastern Kentucky, whose quarterbacks went 17-26 for 278 yards in a 19-13 loss. 

Even with their poor secondary, Indiana has been slightly better than Illinois on a per-play basis this year.  The teams have been the same on offense, both averaging 5.2 yards per play, but Indiana has had a superior rush defense and thus has surrendered 5.5 yards per play versus Illinois' 6.0.  That said, Illinois has played a significantly tougher schedule and probably has more talent.  We still don't know for sure who will be starting at QB for the Illini, but I'm guessing it will be Juice, and if so, he and Arrelious Benn will really need to take advantage of a weak Indiana secondary for the Illini to win.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The new and not-so-improved Illinois offense

The most puzzling thing to me about Illinois' putrid 1-4 start is the rapid decline of the offense.  The rushing offense has been somewhat disappointing, but is really in the same place it was last year (4.6 yards per carry in 2009 vs. 4.4 in 2008).  The drop-off, then, has been in the passing game, which has plummeted from a stellar 8.2 yards per attempt to a mediocre 5.9.  I still don't have a satisfying explanation for why this might be, so let's try a few theories:

1.  The offensive line


Ron Zook called out the offensive line after the Michigan State game for its poor play.  I certainly believe that the play of the offensive line is every bit as important, if not more so, to the success of an offense as the play of its quarterback.  Thus, a lot of Illinois' struggles may stem from having lost two senior starters from last year's line (Ryan McDonald and Xavier Fulton).  That said, losing two starters, although a significant loss, shouldn't necessarily have crippled the line.  But it clearly has.





As has been documented on Football Outsiders, some quarterbacks take more sacks than others, regardless of the quality of their offensive line.  But with the same quarterbacks on the field last year, Illinois allowed just 25 sacks in 12 games.  Through 5 games this year, they have already allowed 19.  Not only do the sacks hurt by themselves, but they are an indicator that Juice and Eddie are facing a lot more pressure than they were last year, which undoubtedly hurts their productivity even on plays where they aren't getting sacked.

2.  The change in offensive coordinators

After Mike Locksley left to become the head coach at New Mexico, Ron Zook hired Mike Schultz from TCU to become the new offensive coordinator.  Although I was impressed with Locksley's ability to change from a run-first to a pass-first offense without any loss in productivity after the departure of Rashard Mendenhall, I was also optimistic about Schultz since he came from a winning mid-major program in TCU.  Unfortunately, I overlooked that TCU has been a strong program primarily because of its defense, and the offense was only passable under Schultz, ranking an average of 56th nationally in yards per play from 2004-2008.

Since Schultz's offenses at TCU were usually complemented by great defenses, it was to his advantage to play a conservative style.  Yet Illinois' strength last year was taking shots downfield.  Locksley wisely took advantage of Juice's arm strength and realized his inaccuracy would hinder an offense built around short passes.  But look what has happened this year:




The deep pass game has disappeared.  Now there are a lot of reasons this could be the case, including the poor play of the offensive line, and Arrelious Benn struggling with injuries.  Yet from my own observation,  Schultz has been calling significantly fewer deep pass plays than Locksley.  The Eddie McGee experiment was doomed before it even began because Schultz went even more conservative, running on first and second down and then throwing on third and long.  The playbook only opened up once Juice came in and the team was hopelessly behind.

3. Arrelious Benn playing hurt

As I've detailed in earlier posts, this has been another huge factor in the decline of the offense.  After putting up 1055 yards last year, Benn is on pace for just 422 this year after suffering an injury that took him out of the game against Missouri and rendered him ineffective against Illinois State.  He finally was starting to get in the swing of things against Penn State, with 5 catches for 96 yards, only to suffer a concussion against Michigan State and be held to 38 yards on 3 catches.  Benn is a phenomenally talented receiver and it was his ability to get open and adjust to Juice's errant throws that allowed Juice to be successful in the passing game in 2008 despite his lack of accuracy.

When I started this post, I really wasn't sure what to blame for the decline of the Illinois offense.  I don't think any one of the above three factors is solely responsible, but combined, they have resulted in a huge hit on the team's effectiveness.  The good news is that most of these things can be corrected.  If Benn stays healthy, he will undoubtedly begin to produce closer to 2008 levels.  I suspect this will also let Schultz concentrate on the deep ball a bit more.  Finally, the offensive line is young and Zook has been experimenting with different line combinations to find the right mix.  The offense has hit rock-bottom and can only go up from here.  The question is whether it will improve enough to allow the Illini to escape the Big 10 basement.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Michigan State 24, Illinois 14


The vibe among Illinois fans after the game was rightly one of despair.  Matt Hinton at Dr. Saturday went as far as to say that that Illinois is "closing in on Washington State as the worst 'Big Six' conference team in the country."  The reactions aren't surprising considering Michigan State dominated the first half and the game wasn't even as close as the 17-0 halftime score indicated given that the Spartans had a fumble on the goal line and another drive that stalled out in Illinois territory.

At the half, Michigan State had outgained Illinois 282-60, averaged 6.7 yards per play to Illinois' 3.3, and ran 42 plays to 18 by Illinois.  Domination in every sense.  And after Eddie McGee threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown, the game was more or less over at 24-0.  Yet the final score and statistics wound up looking not so bad as the Illini outplayed the Spartans significantly in the second half:


The obvious reaction is to say that the game was over in the second half.  But it wasn't, necessarily.  The defense legitimately played much better in the second half, and although the offense was still scuffling until a 4 play, 67 yard touchdown drive near the end, the team played better once McGee was pulled for Juice.  Yeah, it's not much to go off of.  But considering some of my friends and family are forecasting a 1-11 season for Illinois, the second half performance is an indication, to me at least, that things aren't that hopeless yet.  Some signs of life are better than none at all, and some signs of life put Illinois a long way ahead of Washington State.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Illini Outlook and MSU Pick

On this cool site, you can track how the line setters at Vegas are ranking each college football team based on the weekly spreads.  Illinois has been plummeting through the rankings, but they are still seen as a team with enough talent to rank 51st nationally.  More importantly, these rankings allowed me to generate some prospective lines for the rest of the season:

Illinois (+6) at Indiana
Illinois at Purdue (-2)
Michigan (+1.5) at Illinois
Illinois at Minnesota (-3)
Northwestern at Illinois (-6.5)
Illinois at Cincinnati (-11.5)
Fresno State at Illinois (-4.5)

(+x denotes a road favorite; -x a home favorite - so Illinois projects to be favored at Indiana, and at home against Northwestern and Fresno State)

Of course, having acquired some prospective lines, I really got going and using odds generated from projected money lines, I simulated 1000 Illinois seasons to see what their prognosis is.  Here are the results:

9-3: 0
8-4: 19
7-5: 94
6-6: 239
5-7: 302
4-8: 221
3-9: 96
2-10: 27
1-11: 2

Clearly Illinois isn't going to win out, but fans shouldn't fear that the team won't be winning any more games this year.  In fact, the team will likely finish at least 4-8 with a mean projection of 5-7.  A bowl berth is not yet out of reach either, with their odds of finishing 6-6 or higher at 35.2%.  Good news for Ron Zook - if the team does finish 5-7, he probably won't lose his job, at least not this season.

This weekend's game is as good a time as any for Illinois to start making a late run.  For all his deficiencies, I admire Zook for being willing to take a chance and start Eddie McGee at quarterback.  The team is more likely to miss a bowl than make one at this point, so it is worth seeing if McGee can spark the Illini offense.  Michigan State is a stronger team than their record indicates, but if Illinois wins tomorrow, their odds of making a bowl increase to 49.5% in my simulation and potentially higher since a win would positively impact future lines.  I am still going to pick against Illinois until they prove me wrong with a win, but this analysis has made me more optimistic about the future of the season.

Pick: Michigan State 27, Illinois 21

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Michigan State Preview


Last year's Michigan State team had a successful season, going 6-2 in conference and 9-4 overall. Give some credit to coach Mark Dantonio for taking a team that wasn't all that talented (45-7 and 49-18 losses to Ohio State and Penn State) but taking care of business against all of the teams that were of MSU's caliber. Then again, winning close games doesn't always carry over from year to year, and this year the Spartans, after an easy win against Montana State, lost games by 2,3,and 8 points, before finally prevailing in overtime against Michigan last Saturday. Michigan State was actually outgained on a per-play basis last year (5.3 to 4.9) and still went 9-4 while this year they have substantially outgained their opponents (6.3 to 5.0) and are just 2-3.

This year's squad, despite losing workhorse running back Javon Ringer (1637 yards in 2008), is actually improved on offense thanks to putting more emphasis on a rejuvenated passing game under QBs Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. Although I'm skeptical that running Ringer into the ground last year (390 carries) was a good idea in the first place, it is a sign of a well-coached team that MSU has adapted to different personnel this year. An average passing game has been replaced by a very good one with Cousins and Nichol both averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt. Nichol is the greater running threat but both have positive rushing yardage, something which MSU could not say last year with immobile QB Brian Hoyer (-94 rushing yards). Although a clear #1 running back has yet to emerge, the ground game hasn't been that much less effective than the 2008 version and has been called upon less heavily.

In terms of points per game, the defense has been less effective this year, but it in fact has done pretty well on a per-play basis despite going up against some stiff competition. Central Michigan put up more yards than MSU but also ran 20 more plays in its 29-27 victory. The Spartans held an explosive Notre Dame attack to 6.2 yards per play but were -1 in turnovers and wound up losing by a field goal. Finally, Wisconsin averaged just 5.4 yards per play but wound up winning thanks to a +3 performance in turnovers.

Overall, this looks like a better team than their win-loss record would indicate. They dropped the ball against Central Michigan but performed well against a tough slate of teams in their next 3 games and could easily have gone 3-0 in that stretch. This is why despite only being one game ahead of Illinois in the standings and going on the road, the Spartans are a 3.5 point favorite. Tomorrow, I will examine the match-up from Illinois' side and make my prediction.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Your new starting quarterback - Eddie McGee!

In a surprising move, Ron Zook has named Eddie McGee the starting quarterback for Illinois this weekend against Michigan State. My girlfriend is in full support of the change, but I worry that McGee won't really add anything to the offense. I am well aware of Juice's flaws but he also hasn't gotten enough credit for his fine junior season because of the team's 5-7 record. Despite losing Rashard Mendenhall to the NFL Draft (who, might I add, ran for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns on national television last night), the Illinois offense scored more points and gained more yards per game in 2008 than in 2007. This was largely because the passing game was much improved, as Juice averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt and threw for 3173 yards.

All that said, Juice's numbers are down this year (5.8 ypa) and Eddie McGee forever won the hearts of Illinois fans when he came off the bench and was a goal-line interception away from leading a big comeback against an 11-2 Missouri team in 2007. My main concern is that although McGee has been very good for a backup, he appears to be the same kind of player as Juice:





Over the last three years McGee's production when he has played has been comparable to Juice's. What concerns me is that while McGee, like Juice, has been productive in terms of generating yardage, he shares the same proclivities for low completion percentages and high interception rates. In fact, although the sample size is small, McGee's completion percentage has been lower and his interception rate higher.

Given McGee's nice career yards per attempt figure, a QB switch isn't a totally crazy idea. But I fear that if McGee is no more or less productive than Juice has been, it will undermine the leadership of this team. The question is whether Illinois at 1-3 is already at the point where they need to try something radical to salvage the season. Despite my qualms, the answer may be yes, but I wonder if Zook is pulling the plug on his productive senior starter too soon.

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Sunday, October 4, 2009

Penn State 35, Illinois 17


My optimistic forecasting was in some ways, pretty accurate for this game. Illinois rediscovered their future NFL wide receiver Arrelious Benn, who had 5 catches for 96 yards. Juice threw for 263 yards, averaging a respectable 7.3 yards per attempt. The Illini were competitive throughout the first half and could have been down 7-6 or even ahead 10-7 at the half had a late drive not stalled out due to penalties.

All that said, the utter dominance of Penn State in the third quarter was a harsh reminder that Illinois, right now, is not a very good football team. Ahead just 7-3 at the half, Penn State embarked on consecutive drives of 55, 69, 79, and 80 yards, the first drive ending in a fumble, but the next three ending in rushing touchdowns. Illinois wound up with a respectable 393 yards of offense against a strong defense, but 150 of that (and 14 of their points) came once Penn State had already seized a commanding 28-3 lead, and they put up just 8 yards of offense in the critical third quarter.

In my game preview, I had highlighted Penn State's rushing offense as a team weakness, but you would never have known it from watching this game. The Nittany Lions ran for 338 yards on 40 attempts and simply ran the ball over and over again in the second half to little resistance from the Illinois front. Considering that Illinois produced just 130 yards on the ground, this was the difference in the game. Illinois wasn't flagged for a lot of penalties and their two turnovers were forgivable considering they came on a Hail Mary pass at the end of the first half and after the game was already over at 28-10, but the disparity on the ground was too much to overcome.

At 1-3, Illinois has made it through the toughest portion of their schedule but has shown little to suggest that the results will improve against the easier portion of their schedule. A bowl bid is not completely unrealistic yet, but it is looking less and less likely with each passing week.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Penn State at Illinois, Preview

In my previous post, I detailed some of the reasons Illinois might not be as bad as they have looked and why they might be primed for a stronger performance this weekend. Unfortunately, they are playing a superior Penn State team that will also be up after an unexpected 21-10 home loss to Iowa.

What do we know about Penn State after the first four weeks? They cruised against three creampuffs in Akron, Syracuse and Temple (though Syracuse is looking more lively this year) and then were ambushed by a strong Iowa team which dominated on defense and on the ground. First off, their offense may not be as strong as anticipated. They are averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt (56th nationally) after averaging 8.3 last year (15th) despite a soft non-conference schedule. They have really struggled on the ground, (3.8 yards per carry; 73rd nationally), again, after a much stronger showing last year (5.2 ypc; 12th).

The struggles of PSU's offense this year are a good reminder that there is more to an offense than just quarterback and running back. Penn State's offensive line starters this year are all either brand new or are starting at a different position. Meanwhile, Penn State graduated its top three receivers in Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, and Derrick Williams. As such, QB Daryll Clark has been good but not spectacular and RB Evan Royster has struggled to run as effectively behind a reworked offensive line. These problems weren't as a big of a deal during their nonconference schedule, but Iowa was able to put constant pressure on Clark and plug up the running holes for Royster.

That said, Penn State's defense has mostly been excellent, allowing just 41 points in four games. They have been pretty good, but not great, against the pass, ranking 34th nationally at 5.8 yards per attempt allowed. But they have been spectacular against the run, allowing just 2.4 yards per carry, ranking 11th in the country.

The strength of Penn State's defense is bad news for an Illinois offense licking its wounds. Yet there is reason for hope. Star MLB Sean Lee won't be suiting up for the Nittany Lions after also missing the Iowa game with a knee injury. Without Lee and facing a more respectable run game, Penn State gave up 163 rushing yards against Iowa, at 4.4 yards per carry. Furthermore, Penn State has a good but not great pass defense, so there will be opportunities to get the ball to Arrelious Benn.

Prediction: A jacked up Illinois team makes some plays early through the air as Arrelious Benn goes over 100 receiving yards for the first time this season but an ineffectual running game is unable to get going even without Sean Lee there to stuff the run. After experiencing some troubles early against a solid Illinois pass rush, Daryll Clark begins to carve up the Illini secondary in the second half. Illinois hangs around but feels the season beginning to slip away as Clark leads a backbreaking yard touchdown drive to put Penn State up by two scores in the fourth quarter.

Final score: Penn State 28, Illinois 17