Michigan at Illinois, a Prediction

I'm guessing Illinois fans don't really think there is much of a hope of beating Michigan this Saturday, especially after all the 'Michigan is back' hype in the wake of their 38-34 defeat of Notre Dame.  Yet the mood among Michigan fans isn't very optimistic either after they lost 35-10 at home to Penn State last week.  From reading some Michigan blogs, my impression is that the Michigan fans are gearing up for the worst this weekend.  I knew that the Wolverines had faded a bit after a strong start, but I was surprised to see just how bad they have been in conference play:

Their in-conference numbers really aren't any better than Illinois' (4.8 yards per play on offense, 6.3 yards per play allowed on defense) and they've played a lot of the same Big 10 opponents (Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana).  QB Tate Forcier has remembered that he's a true freshman, the ground game has stalled, and the defense has been mediocre apart from touted DE Brandon Graham (5.5 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss). 

All that said, Michigan has played a tough Big 10 schedule and apart from the Penn State game have been competitive despite their deficit in yards per play, outright defeating Indiana, taking Michigan State to overtime, and losing to Iowa by just 2 points.  Given that, I don't think it makes sense to pick Illinois, as tempting as it may be given my incurable optimism.  But with the offense looking like it could round into form with a two-quarterback system, I like Illinois' chances of giving Michigan a game.

Pick: Michigan 24, Illinois 21