Before last weekend, I optimistically envisioned this game as the second consecutive win in a mid-season turnaround for the Illini. If Illinois managed to beat Indiana, they would then be playing a 1-6 Purdue team. Except, of course, Illinois lost and Purdue isn't 1-6 after a shocking 26-18 home upset of Ohio State. Now, Illinois is a 10 point underdog against the suddenly resurgent Boilermakers.
All that said, I disagree with Dr. Saturday's contention that "it's not like Purdue was a snake in the grass or anything." I certainly would not have picked Purdue to beat Ohio State just because Ohio State has historically been so reliable against its Big 10 opponents. But Purdue was absolutely better than their 1-5 record going in indicated and are better than their current 2-5 mark as well. They lost by just 2 points on the road against Oregon (#11 in the BCS standings) and by 3 at home against Notre Dame. On the other hand, they did have head-scratching losses against Northern Illinois, Northwestern and to a lesser extent, Minnesota. The NIU loss was legitimately head-scratching but the Northwestern loss was a fluke, as Purdue outgained the Wildcats by over 3 yards per play but was -5 in turnover margin. Even the 15 point loss to Minnesota was closer than it appeared as the teams were equal on a yards per play basis. Going into the Ohio State game, it was plausible that Purdue could have been 5-1 or 6-0 had they been particularly lucky instead of unlucky (and no, this is not a stretch - just look at Iowa, which is 7-0 despite close shaves against Northern Iowa and Arkansas State) - at which point I would still have picked Ohio State but it wouldn't have seemed like such a colossal upset.
So, in that sense, it was about time that one of Purdue's opponents handed them a game, and Ohio State did just that, with 5 turnovers. And clearly, Vegas has recognized that despite similar records, Purdue has been far more competitive than the Illini - having been outscored by just 4 points on the season whereas the Illini have been outscored by 71. Even with a new head coach and new QB, Purdue has had a rejuvenated pass attack this year, with Joey Elliott averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt against the 6.3 of Curtis Painter last season. Their team rushing statistics also look better since Elliott has more scrambling ability - though it's probably a wash given that sacks are included in team rushing totals. Purdue has been slightly improved on defense from last year, primarily versus the run, though their pass defense has been respectable as well.
Purdue's pitfall, of course, has been turnovers, with 12 fumbles lost and 11 interceptions thrown, leaving them -7 in turnover margin on the season even after the +2 performance against Ohio State. They actually have 23 turnovers to just 13 by Illinois but have also forced 16 turnovers while the Illini have forced just 9. Part of Purdue's troubles have been bad luck, as they have lost 12 of their 17 fumbles - and fumble recovery rate is almost completely random. But even so, 17 fumbles in 7 games is a big number, as is 11 interceptions.
So although Purdue is certainly the superior team to Illinois in terms of moving the ball up and down the field, they have already lost to inferior teams (Northern Illinois, Northwestern) thanks to their issues with turnovers and general inconsistency. In other words, there is hope for the Illini yet, but if Purdue makes mistakes, Illinois will have to be able to take advantage of them - something they have not yet done this season.
