Well, I ran the same simulation I ran last week, and unsurprisingly, Illinois' bowl odds have plummeted after another lackluster loss. Just a week ago, the Illini projected to be a 6 point favorite against Indiana but Vegas is finally ditching its high preseason expectations for Illinois and has moved them to just a 2 point favorite (Actually, the line has moved up to 3.5 over the last day - this is a good sign!). Correspondingly, Illinois' bowl odds have fallen from 35.2% to 13.6% in my simulation. It's still not impossible but with a mean simulated finish of 4-8, the more pressing question may be whether Ron Zook will still be coaching Illinois this time next year.
It's past time to throw out the preseason expectations. The offense has been much worse than expected and the defense, the main question mark coming into the season, has shown why it was a question mark. But if Illinois is going to win any games this year, now is a good time to get started. The young defense played a lot better in the second half against Michigan State. Arrelious Benn is healthy. And best of all, they are playing an opponent who hasn't looked a whole lot more impressive than they have. I'm calling for a strong, consistent performance from the defense and Juice hooking up with Benn for a long touchdown pass.
Pick: Illinois 24, Indiana 17
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