The new and not-so-improved Illinois offense

The most puzzling thing to me about Illinois' putrid 1-4 start is the rapid decline of the offense.  The rushing offense has been somewhat disappointing, but is really in the same place it was last year (4.6 yards per carry in 2009 vs. 4.4 in 2008).  The drop-off, then, has been in the passing game, which has plummeted from a stellar 8.2 yards per attempt to a mediocre 5.9.  I still don't have a satisfying explanation for why this might be, so let's try a few theories:

1.  The offensive line


Ron Zook called out the offensive line after the Michigan State game for its poor play.  I certainly believe that the play of the offensive line is every bit as important, if not more so, to the success of an offense as the play of its quarterback.  Thus, a lot of Illinois' struggles may stem from having lost two senior starters from last year's line (Ryan McDonald and Xavier Fulton).  That said, losing two starters, although a significant loss, shouldn't necessarily have crippled the line.  But it clearly has.

As has been documented on Football Outsiders, some quarterbacks take more sacks than others, regardless of the quality of their offensive line.  But with the same quarterbacks on the field last year, Illinois allowed just 25 sacks in 12 games.  Through 5 games this year, they have already allowed 19.  Not only do the sacks hurt by themselves, but they are an indicator that Juice and Eddie are facing a lot more pressure than they were last year, which undoubtedly hurts their productivity even on plays where they aren't getting sacked.

2.  The change in offensive coordinators

After Mike Locksley left to become the head coach at New Mexico, Ron Zook hired Mike Schultz from TCU to become the new offensive coordinator.  Although I was impressed with Locksley's ability to change from a run-first to a pass-first offense without any loss in productivity after the departure of Rashard Mendenhall, I was also optimistic about Schultz since he came from a winning mid-major program in TCU.  Unfortunately, I overlooked that TCU has been a strong program primarily because of its defense, and the offense was only passable under Schultz, ranking an average of 56th nationally in yards per play from 2004-2008.

Since Schultz's offenses at TCU were usually complemented by great defenses, it was to his advantage to play a conservative style.  Yet Illinois' strength last year was taking shots downfield.  Locksley wisely took advantage of Juice's arm strength and realized his inaccuracy would hinder an offense built around short passes.  But look what has happened this year:

The deep pass game has disappeared.  Now there are a lot of reasons this could be the case, including the poor play of the offensive line, and Arrelious Benn struggling with injuries.  Yet from my own observation,  Schultz has been calling significantly fewer deep pass plays than Locksley.  The Eddie McGee experiment was doomed before it even began because Schultz went even more conservative, running on first and second down and then throwing on third and long.  The playbook only opened up once Juice came in and the team was hopelessly behind.

3. Arrelious Benn playing hurt

As I've detailed in earlier posts, this has been another huge factor in the decline of the offense.  After putting up 1055 yards last year, Benn is on pace for just 422 this year after suffering an injury that took him out of the game against Missouri and rendered him ineffective against Illinois State.  He finally was starting to get in the swing of things against Penn State, with 5 catches for 96 yards, only to suffer a concussion against Michigan State and be held to 38 yards on 3 catches.  Benn is a phenomenally talented receiver and it was his ability to get open and adjust to Juice's errant throws that allowed Juice to be successful in the passing game in 2008 despite his lack of accuracy.

When I started this post, I really wasn't sure what to blame for the decline of the Illinois offense.  I don't think any one of the above three factors is solely responsible, but combined, they have resulted in a huge hit on the team's effectiveness.  The good news is that most of these things can be corrected.  If Benn stays healthy, he will undoubtedly begin to produce closer to 2008 levels.  I suspect this will also let Schultz concentrate on the deep ball a bit more.  Finally, the offensive line is young and Zook has been experimenting with different line combinations to find the right mix.  The offense has hit rock-bottom and can only go up from here.  The question is whether it will improve enough to allow the Illini to escape the Big 10 basement.