Michigan State Preview

Last year's Michigan State team had a successful season, going 6-2 in conference and 9-4 overall. Give some credit to coach Mark Dantonio for taking a team that wasn't all that talented (45-7 and 49-18 losses to Ohio State and Penn State) but taking care of business against all of the teams that were of MSU's caliber. Then again, winning close games doesn't always carry over from year to year, and this year the Spartans, after an easy win against Montana State, lost games by 2,3,and 8 points, before finally prevailing in overtime against Michigan last Saturday. Michigan State was actually outgained on a per-play basis last year (5.3 to 4.9) and still went 9-4 while this year they have substantially outgained their opponents (6.3 to 5.0) and are just 2-3.

This year's squad, despite losing workhorse running back Javon Ringer (1637 yards in 2008), is actually improved on offense thanks to putting more emphasis on a rejuvenated passing game under QBs Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. Although I'm skeptical that running Ringer into the ground last year (390 carries) was a good idea in the first place, it is a sign of a well-coached team that MSU has adapted to different personnel this year. An average passing game has been replaced by a very good one with Cousins and Nichol both averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt. Nichol is the greater running threat but both have positive rushing yardage, something which MSU could not say last year with immobile QB Brian Hoyer (-94 rushing yards). Although a clear #1 running back has yet to emerge, the ground game hasn't been that much less effective than the 2008 version and has been called upon less heavily.

In terms of points per game, the defense has been less effective this year, but it in fact has done pretty well on a per-play basis despite going up against some stiff competition. Central Michigan put up more yards than MSU but also ran 20 more plays in its 29-27 victory. The Spartans held an explosive Notre Dame attack to 6.2 yards per play but were -1 in turnovers and wound up losing by a field goal. Finally, Wisconsin averaged just 5.4 yards per play but wound up winning thanks to a +3 performance in turnovers.

Overall, this looks like a better team than their win-loss record would indicate. They dropped the ball against Central Michigan but performed well against a tough slate of teams in their next 3 games and could easily have gone 3-0 in that stretch. This is why despite only being one game ahead of Illinois in the standings and going on the road, the Spartans are a 3.5 point favorite. Tomorrow, I will examine the match-up from Illinois' side and make my prediction.