In my previous post, I detailed some of the reasons Illinois might not be as bad as they have looked and why they might be primed for a stronger performance this weekend. Unfortunately, they are playing a superior Penn State team that will also be up after an unexpected 21-10 home loss to Iowa.
What do we know about Penn State after the first four weeks? They cruised against three creampuffs in Akron, Syracuse and Temple (though Syracuse is looking more lively this year) and then were ambushed by a strong Iowa team which dominated on defense and on the ground. First off, their offense may not be as strong as anticipated. They are averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt (56th nationally) after averaging 8.3 last year (15th) despite a soft non-conference schedule. They have really struggled on the ground, (3.8 yards per carry; 73rd nationally), again, after a much stronger showing last year (5.2 ypc; 12th).
The struggles of PSU's offense this year are a good reminder that there is more to an offense than just quarterback and running back. Penn State's offensive line starters this year are all either brand new or are starting at a different position. Meanwhile, Penn State graduated its top three receivers in Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, and Derrick Williams. As such, QB Daryll Clark has been good but not spectacular and RB Evan Royster has struggled to run as effectively behind a reworked offensive line. These problems weren't as a big of a deal during their nonconference schedule, but Iowa was able to put constant pressure on Clark and plug up the running holes for Royster.
That said, Penn State's defense has mostly been excellent, allowing just 41 points in four games. They have been pretty good, but not great, against the pass, ranking 34th nationally at 5.8 yards per attempt allowed. But they have been spectacular against the run, allowing just 2.4 yards per carry, ranking 11th in the country.
The strength of Penn State's defense is bad news for an Illinois offense licking its wounds. Yet there is reason for hope. Star MLB Sean Lee won't be suiting up for the Nittany Lions after also missing the Iowa game with a knee injury. Without Lee and facing a more respectable run game, Penn State gave up 163 rushing yards against Iowa, at 4.4 yards per carry. Furthermore, Penn State has a good but not great pass defense, so there will be opportunities to get the ball to Arrelious Benn.
Prediction: A jacked up Illinois team makes some plays early through the air as Arrelious Benn goes over 100 receiving yards for the first time this season but an ineffectual running game is unable to get going even without Sean Lee there to stuff the run. After experiencing some troubles early against a solid Illinois pass rush, Daryll Clark begins to carve up the Illini secondary in the second half. Illinois hangs around but feels the season beginning to slip away as Clark leads a backbreaking yard touchdown drive to put Penn State up by two scores in the fourth quarter.
Final score: Penn State 28, Illinois 17
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