Last night was a desperation game for both Florida State and North Carolina who each entered the season with high expectations but were both off to 0-2 starts in the ACC. Unfortunately for the Heels, they are now 0-3 in ACC play after FSU rallied from an 18 point second-half deficit to win 30-27. It was an interesting game going in, as UNC was 1st in defense, but 110th in offense (in terms of yards per play) while FSU was 25th in offense, 115th in defense (again in terms of yards per play). In the first half, the Heels defense won out and the offense took advantage of short-field situations for scores but in the second half QB Christian Ponder took over for Florida State while the UNC offense flatlined.
Betsy won't like this, but ultimately the statistics show that Florida State probably should have won by more than 3 points, despite the 18-point deficit. Not only were their offense much more explosive on a per-play basis (6.8 to 4.9) but they were also were more consistent as shown by success rate (46.2% to 30.9%). The Heels were solid on the ground, running some end-around and reverse plays to great effect, but did almost nothing through the air. Meanwhile, after a penalty-ridden first half, Florida State lit up the UNC defense in the second half for 338 yards and 23 successes on just 40 plays. The Seminoles never established a running threat but Christian Ponder nonetheless threw for 395 yards.
Unfortunately, UNC has a tough slate of games coming up with the only potential breather being a November 7 home game against Duke. They can still reel off some wins but they will need to bring a consistent effort on defense and have their offense take advantage of short-field situations as it did against Florida State. The stats from last night's game look bad, but I think the real problem was that the team simply let up after going ahead 24-6 in the third quarter. It's natural, but given their offensive deficiencies, it can't afford to happen.
Well, my bonus UNC coverage wound up consuming the entire post. But suffice it to say, I'm returning to my strategy of picking against the Illini until they prove to me that I shouldn't.
Pick: Purdue 35, Illinois 17
