Indiana Preview

Indiana has historically been the weakest team in the Big 10, so it's not too surprising that Illinois, even at 1-4, has been posted as a road favorite by Vegas.  Yet at the same time, Illinois is only favored to win by two points over a team that was throttled 47-7 by Virginia last week.  The Illini are 0-4 against the spread this year and as such, Vegas has brought the line on this game way down from where it would have been just a few weeks ago. 

So what can we expect from the Hoosiers?  They got off to a 3-0 start, but only thanks to the kind of pathetic nonconference schedule I wish Illinois would play, with narrow wins over Western Michigan, FCS member Eastern Kentucky and a more resounding win against Akron.  Their most impressive game of the season by far was a 36-33 loss at Michigan where they actually outgained the Wolverines 467-372 but lost on a late touchdown drive by Michigan QB Tate Forcier.  Based on that performance, Indiana probably would have been favored against the Illini except for last week when they were torched by an improving Virginia team, dropping them to 3-3 on the season.

Even without QB Kellen Lewis (kicked off the team due to disciplinary problems), Indiana has a decent passing offense behind QB Ben Chappell, who is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt.  Their running game hasn't been as impressive due largely to the immobility of Chappell but the top two running backs, Demetrius McCray and Darius Willis, have been decently productive. 

Where the team has really struggled is in the secondary, giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt (even worse than Illinois!).  This flaw became all too visible for Hoosier fans when embattled Virginia QB Jameel Sewell threw for 308 yards in three quarters and Virginia racked up 536 yards of offense.  The Hoosier secondary was also embarassing against FCS Eastern Kentucky, whose quarterbacks went 17-26 for 278 yards in a 19-13 loss. 

Even with their poor secondary, Indiana has been slightly better than Illinois on a per-play basis this year.  The teams have been the same on offense, both averaging 5.2 yards per play, but Indiana has had a superior rush defense and thus has surrendered 5.5 yards per play versus Illinois' 6.0.  That said, Illinois has played a significantly tougher schedule and probably has more talent.  We still don't know for sure who will be starting at QB for the Illini, but I'm guessing it will be Juice, and if so, he and Arrelious Benn will really need to take advantage of a weak Indiana secondary for the Illini to win.