This blog is certainly a labor of love, because I have a small, if loyal readership (thanks family and friends!) and yet I pour hours into analyzing team statistics. Actually, I have done this in past years, even without a blog. At any rate, I have felt like my analysis could still use some work, especially since I have been at a loss to pinpoint the decline of the Illinois offense. Thus I have begun an ambitious film study project. I already have acquired the video from the Purdue game last weekend and have begun charting plays - on offense, focusing on offensive line protection and quarterback decision-making and on defense, focusing on defensive line penetration.
Unfortunately, watching and re-watching the plays is a slow process, so I have only charted up until about midway through the second quarter (hopefully I will get something more thorough posted in the future). That said, I have already learned a lot. It's easy to imagine that the coaches are incompetent buffoons since there is such a negative air around the team but so far, I haven't seen much of a playcalling difference between Illinois and Purdue. In particular, Illinois' run plays were well-designed and well-executed in the first half, and they have a lot of different looks out of the backfield - handoffs out of the shotgun, delayed handoffs, and option pitches. The pass game, in comparison, has not looked as good to me on film (not surprising). In the passes I've charted for Juice so far, he made two really bad decisions, one under pressure, and one while on the run. I'd like to imagine that Jacob Charest is the savior, but he also made a bad decision on his very first throw which could have led to an interception.
Going forward, the run game is really starting to find itself with Mikel LeShoure as the lead back. I still think that offensive coordinator Mike Schultz is hamstringing the offense with a lack of deep pass plays (none called in the plays I have charted so far), especially considering that was the strength of the team last year, but then again, Juice also hasn't had as much time to throw. The offensive line looked noticeably worse in pass protection than against the run. It's also becoming more clear to me that Juice hasn't developed as a passer. When he got good protection against Purdue, he delivered nice, accurate passes, but when under pressure or on the run, he started to force passes into coverage and lose accuracy. I think the main difference between this year and last year is less that Juice has regressed and more that the line is giving him much less pass protection, and that the receivers aren't getting open as often, thanks to the graduation of Will Judson and the injury problems of Arrelious Benn.
As for the defense, Illinois generally runs a basic 4-3 alignment (4 linemen, 3 linebackers) with corners and safeties in loose coverage, but in the first half against Purdue, they did a good job mixing up their coverage looks and disguising blitzes before the snap. I have the same basic playcalling qualm as I do with the offense - not enough going for broke plays - in this case, I would like to see some more blitzes instead of deep passes. All that said, the blitzes Illinois did run in the first half against Purdue were nicely timed and usually not picked up. Again, the problem is less the playcalling and more the execution. Purdue was able to run all over the Illini defense in the first half because the defensive line got almost no penetration. This forced the linebackers and safeties to scramble to make tackles, which they sometimes did, but sometimes didn't.
So at least in the first half against Purdue, I felt the difference was more in terms of talent and execution than playcalling and game preparation. This excuses Ron Zook and the coaching staff on one front, but as I alluded to in my last post, it raises serious questions about where all the supposed talent Zook brought in is if Purdue has the superior team. The good news is if Jacob Charest continues to develop, the offense may show some more signs of life, and the Illini ought to be greatly improved next year with a more experienced defense and the return of their running back corps.
