Thursday, July 30, 2009

Adjusted Yards per Passing Attempt

Generally, yards per pass attempt is the best simple method of evaluating the success of a quarterback (don't get me started on the esoteric QB Rating formula). But on this blog, I will use a formula called adjusted yards per attempt (AYPA), which also takes into account passing touchdowns, interceptions, and sack yardage.

AYPA: (Passing Yards + 20*Passing TDs - 45*Interceptions - Sack Yards Lost)/ (Sacks + Pass Attempts)

This formula is a good one on a number of levels. It includes sacks as pass plays rather than run plays, which is the correct distinction and one that NCAA statkeepers fail to recognize. It gives a moderate boost for passing TDs and a severe deduction for interceptions. It makes sense to me that an interception should be a bigger deduction than a passing TD is a boost. There are many situations where a QB doesn't have to do much to get a passing TD. An interception, though, is almost always crippling. It can give the opponent great field position, give up a potential offensive touchdown, or both. Still, I like the idea of giving some credit to the QB for a passing TD, as it does take skill to put the ball in the endzone even after marching most of the way down the field.

P.S. For my purposes in this blog, I will usually use the formula without sacks, since sack data is difficult to obtain for NCAA.

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