Reasons for Optimism

Over at Dr. Saturday, Matt Hinton is close to calling this a lost season for Illinois. I more or less came to the same conclusion in my recap of the Ohio State debacle. Nonetheless, Penn State is only favored by 7 points. Sure, Illinois is at home and Penn State hasn't impressed so far this year, but the fact is that Illinois has been downright awful. Thus, it's not surprising that a consensus of computer ratings puts Penn State as a 12.5 point favorite. This spread seems more plausible at first glance, but what might Vegas know that the computers would not?

Vegas knows this: Arrelious Benn, after catching 67 passes for 1055 yards last year, has just 42 receiving yards through 3 games. As I detailed over the summer, Benn was a huge part of why Illinois' offense was frequently explosive last year. While throwing to Benn, Juice completed 64.4% of his passes and averaged 10.1 yards per pass attempt, dwarfing his overall numbers.

This season, however, Benn has been hurt. He caught one pass for 9 yards early in the first quarter against Missouri then missed the rest of the game with an ankle injury. He returned for the Illinois State game but wasn't 100% and was only targeted twice as Illinois mostly ran the ball, resulting in an incomplete pass and a 15 yard pass interference penalty against ISU. Against Ohio State, he was better, catching 4 balls on 5 targets for 33 yards and also drawing an interference penalty which would have been a 45 yard play in the NFL. Finally healthy, Rejus is bound to increase his production. This will help Juice and help out the other receivers, who will benefit as more defensive attention is paid to Benn.

Juice's numbers have also been lagging well behind last year's and although he is coming under a lot of criticism, he will remain the quarterback. Eddie McGee has thrown five interceptions in just 94 career pass attempts and would likely be every bit as frustrating as Juice as the starter. Plus, Juice does have a track record of better play, averaging 8.33 yards per pass attempt as a junior to just 4.83 this year. Even with his inaccuracy and head-scratching interceptions, Juice is capable of offensive production.

What Vegas knows is that there's no obvious reason that the offense should be as bad as it has looked. And considering the prior track record of Arrelious Benn and Juice Williams, there is every reason to believe that the offense is not as bad as it has looked, until further notice. Illinois is at home and with its back against the wall. If there is a time for the offense to find itself, it is this weekend. This is why Penn State is "only" favored by seven points. The next question is how susceptible the Nittany Lions will be to an upset. That's what I will try to answer tomorrow and I will make my final game prediction as well.