Illinois at Ohio State, Preview

Four weeks into the season, I'm still not sure what we really know about this year's Illinois football team. In Week 1, high expectations were apparently scuttled in a 37-9 loss to Missouri. Since then, Illinois has defeated FCS opponent Illinois State 45-17 and taken a week off while other teams rested. Injuries were a big part of the meltdown against Missouri, and despite two weeks off to rest, the injuries continue to mount.

With the injuries and blowout loss against their only real competition, there is an understandable feeling that the Illini may be en route to a lost season. I could see things starting to snowball, but this is still a team with a lot of talent. If Arrelious Benn is healthy, they will move the ball down the field. The 9 point effort against Missouri was not good, but Illinois also ranked 20th in the country in offensive yards per play last year. They are not suddenly going to be a bad offensive team and racking up 548 yards against Illinois State was a good sign, even if it wasn't against the best competition. Of course, the lingering concern with a Juice Williams-led team is that nice yardage numbers will be undone by crippling turnovers and although Illinois wasn't great moving the ball against Missouri, the two turnovers made things a lot worse.

The main point of concern is what may be a terrible secondary. The secondary simply wasn't very good last year even with first-round draft pick Vontae Davis; and without him the early returns have been poor, to say the least, as a QB making his first career start for Missouri threw for 319 yards and 3 TDs and even Illinois State threw for 354 yards against the Illini (albeit on 52 pass attempts).

As such, it's not surprising that Illinois is a 14 point underdog going on the road to play Ohio State. The good news is that betting on Illinois would make for a good contrarian pick. Bettors are all over Ohio State and yet the line isn't moving up, suggesting that the Illini have a good shot at covering the spread.

Illinois has played well against Ohio State in recent years, but I am going into this one with low expectations. My best guess is that Illinois will have some success moving the ball through the air, but will stall out on key drives, and that Terrelle Pryor, lately maligned for his passing, will still be able to shred the Illinois secondary. Still, I think Illinois will be up for this game and keep things competitive, proving that this may not be a lost season after all, and gaining some momentum for next week's game against Penn State.

Pick: Ohio State 27, Illinois 17