College Football Pick 'em, Week 3

This year, I've been participating in ESPN's College Football Pick 'em contest for the first time. Through two weeks, I am ranked in the 72.4% percentile but am optimistic that I can continue to move up.

First, a review of last week:

BYU (10), W 54-3
Auburn (9), W 49-24
TCU (8), W 30-14
Tennessee (7), L 15-19
Georgia (6), W 41-37
Wisconsin (5), W 34-31
USC (4), W 18-15
Wake Forest (3), W 24-17
Notre Dame (2), L 34-38
Connecticut (1), L 10-12

A pretty good week on the whole, although I missed my 7 point game. I probably ought to have taken UNC, since even while being overvalued they were still 64.2% to win but it only cost me a point.

After a relatively easy Week 1 and Week 2, Week 3 provides a much tougher slate of games. There are only two double-digit spreads, which makes me nervous. Since it is only Tuesday, my picks are subject to change as lines move and ESPN users vacillate, but this is how I am calling it right now.

10: Texas over Texas Tech (-17.5)

Fortunately, the first slot is a relatively easy pick. Texas is favored by 17.5 points, putting them 4 points ahead of California and are at home, unlike the Bears. Although Texas struggled early against Wyoming last week, they rebounded for a 41-10 victory and dominated statistically. Mike Leach is notorious for being able to place any QB successfully into his system but it took his greatest Texas Tech team to beat Texas and he doesn't have that this year. The downside, of course, is that 97.1% of ESPN users are picking the Longhorns but the average confidence is just 6.2.

9: California over Minnesota (+13.5)

Although they are the only road favorite in this group, they are favored by a huge margin as Minnesota has struggled to put away Syracuse and Air Force. This is another public pick, but no other remaining match-up has a spread anywhere near this large.

8: Auburn over West Virginia (-7)

At 8 points I am already leery about my choice. But despite being selected by 84.4% of users, the average confidence in Auburn is just 3.5. Considering Auburn has the third-largest spread of any pick in the pool, that gives them a lot of value at 8 points.

7: Clemson over Boston College (-6.5)

Although users who have picked Clemson are fairly confident they will win (avg. confidence of 6.2), 28.2% of users are still picking Boston College, meaning this game is actually appropriately valued.

6: Iowa over Arizona (-5.5)

I'm dipping a little bit but although users are overrating the favorite in this match-up (as usual), they are also not all that confident in Iowa's eventual victory.

5: North Carolina over East Carolina (-7)

This game takes a big plunge on my board since a staggering 96.8% of users are selecting UNC, with an average confidence of 8.3, making them the most-bet team for the entire week along with California. This is the second week in a row that ESPN users have LOVED the Heels and they almost got burned big time for it in their game against U Conn. I think UNC will win here as ECU has struggled to start the season but there is about a 27% chance that the public will get hammered and I want to avoid that if possible.

4: Oregon over Utah (-4)

Interestingly, the public loves Utah here despite the Utes being a 4 point underdog. Clearly, Utah is overrated after their win over Alabama last year - this is probably not as strong a squad. Furthermore, I suspect the public is overlooking the fact that Utah will be playing on the road. All that said, I am nervous about taking Oregon considering their poor start to the season but they are more than capable of winning this game.

3: Virginia Tech over Nebraska (-4)

Not a lot of value here since most users don't think Nebraska is ready for a road upset over a ranked team yet. I agree but Tech has enough offensive troubles that it could be closer than you would expect.

2: Arkansas over Georgia (PK)

One of two toss-up games on the board and the public loves Georgia on the road (82.6%). That means Arkansas for me, but I feel good about it. Georgia is lucky to not be 0-2 and Bobby Petrino has the Razorbacks poised for a breakout season. Similar to Utah-Oregon, the public is correctly identifying Georgia as the stronger team but not properly valuing Arkansas' home field advantage.

1: Oregon St. over Cincinnati (PK)

Another road team the public is all over, although less so than with Georgia-Arkansas. I admit Cincinnati has looked impressive so far, but Corvallis is a tough place to win. Just ask USC.

My emphasis with these picks is on value. My competition is the ESPN public as a whole so I want to make picks that not only give me a good chance of getting the games right but also give me a leg up on the competition if they come through.