Against Utah, the team was generally much more successful with the bench players on the court rather than the starters. This isn't too surprising given that the Illini led by 16 at the half and blew their lead mostly in the last ten minutes of the game. I was skeptical of Bruce Weber's decision to start Alex Legion against Bradley but he did lead the team against Utah with a +12 rating.
Against Bradley, the bench once again outperformed the starters. Although Richard Semrau was on the floor just 7 minutes, he managed to post a +11 rating, while the three returning stars from last year (McCamey, Davis, Tisdale) were -7, -10 and -12 respectively. Still, I'm reluctant to draw very many conclusions from game by game plus/minus charts. I'm primarily posting them for interest at this point - until there have been enough games played that season-long numbers begin to mean something.
At any rate, it's probably still too early to read too much into the Pomeroy Ratings, but right now, the Illini rank a bit ahead of last year's team on the offensive end (up from 98th to 72nd) but the defense is fulfilling Bruce Weber's worst fears, and has regressed much more than I would have expected (down to 122nd from 4th), even given the graduation of defensive star Chester Frazier. That said, given Weber's track record, I would expect the defense to improve sharply as the season progresses - they have certainly shown flashes, like holding Utah to 16 points in the first half, but have also had really bad stretches of defense, like letting Utah score 44 in the second half.
What concerns me more is that the offense has taken only a small step forward from last year. Illinois no longer ranks dead last in the country in FTA/FGA but is still just 287th, while everything else has remained about the same. After hot starts, Paul and Richardson have faded a bit the last couple games, and this is probably to be expected given their youth. The success of this season will hinge upon Paul and Richardson's ability to improve the offense by drawing free throws while improving on team defense (Paul, in particular, has been a sieve on defense according to the plus/minus numbers so far).
Overall, it was disappointing and unexpected that Illinois went to Las Vegas and came back with two losses, but it's certainly not the end of the world yet, because the losses were at least close. I read something in the local paper about how if Illinois loses to Clemson, it will be their first three-game losing streak since the miserable 16-19 season of 2008. Yet although true, the implication is misleading. It is the two losses to underdogs in Utah and Bradley that are significant, not a potential third loss to Clemson in a situation where Clemson would have been favored even if the Illini were 6-0. So if Illinois loses another close game tonight, please ignore the inevitable ominous articles revolving around their three-game losing streak. Sometimes luck is just against you. As for me, I need the Big 10 to beat the ACC tonight so I can win a bet with my ACC-school attending girlfriend. So in other words, I'm picking the Illini!
Pick: Illinois 75, Clemson 73
