Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Fresno State 53, Illinois 52

As much as I like to harp on how not all wins are created equal, and how the underlying statistics are sometimes more revealing than the score, it still hurts as a fan to see your team lose on a two-point conversion play where the other team's quarterback throws the ball away to avoid getting sacked, your team's cornerback safely bats the ball down, and then the other team's offensive lineman manages to catch the ball and fall into the end zone. The fact that it was ESPN's play of the week on Sports Center over Kobe Bryant's ridiculous banked-in buzzer-beating three to beat the Heat didn't really make me feel better.

But seriously, as much of a fluke as the play was, and even though Illinois was statistically the better team on Saturday, I felt as disappointed as if they had been blown out. Even if they got unlucky in the end, the miserable play of the defense gave Fresno State the opportunity to win the game and the Bulldogs seized it.

The stats:







The game was an offensive delight, as both teams were explosive and consistent. The 1.132 figure (points/play + success rate) was Illinois' best against FCS competition all season, but unfortunately the 1.041 figure by Fresno State was the Illini defense's second-worst performance of the year. Both teams emphasized the run game to great success, which helped open up the passing game for big plays. Still, the point totals were extreme given the yards gained by both teams, reflecting the role that turnovers and special teams played in setting up short fields. Fresno State, in fact, had a microscopic yards/point ratio of 8.5 thanks in part to an interception return for a touchdown.

I will post some final thoughts (and statistics!) on the season in the coming days, but I must first brag that I totally called the resurgence of the Illinois offense over the second half of the season in my post on yards per point. At the time I wrote the post Illinois was 119th out of 120 teams in the FCS with a horrific ratio of 21.7 yards per point on offense. I pointed out that although Ron Zook teams were historically below average in this statistic, they had never been that bad before and could likely look forward to some regression to the mean. Well, just as I forecasted, the Illinois offense was far more efficient at converting yards into points as the year went on and wound up with a 16.7 yards/point ratio, still below average, but actually a little better than their average during Ron Zook's tenure. Over the last five games, Illinois averaged 13.0 yards/point and also a much better 6.4 yards per play, resulting in a healthy 35.4 points per game over this stretch. This was finally, to some extent, the Illini offense everyone feared coming into the season. Unfortunately, the defense was still so bad that Illinois managed to go 2-3 in their last five despite scoring 35 a game. And Juice Williams will leave Illinois having led the offense to 52 points in his final game but still having lost. I think that says it all.