Thursday, December 3, 2009

Illinois 76, Clemson 74

What a game!  It's not often you see a game that exciting in the regular season.  But there's nothing quite like coming back from a 23 point second-half deficit to win by two on the road.  Of course, I knew Illinois would come back since I picked them to win by almost the exact actual final score (sarcasm).  The game was also remarkable since it helped the Big 10 to capture the ACC/Big 10 Challenge for the first time ever, thus winning me my bet with my girlfriend.  And even more remarkable was the plus-minus chart:



Demetri McCamey was +28 in a game where Illinois won by just two points, meaning that his overall plus/minus was an astounding +54!!  Let me repeat that: Illinois was fifty-four points worse when Demetri was on the bench.  I'd been wondering if my game plus/minus charts had any value, but this is a great example of how they can be quite revealing.  I don't have a ton of college plus/minus data to work with but I have never seen a player put up a number anywhere near +54, which attests to how unique a game this was.

Clemson's big run to go up by 20+ points took place with McCamey on the bench with three fouls and Jordan running the point.  Similarly, Illinois' big run took place with McCamey back in the game.  I don't mean to suggest that McCamey can be solely credited with Illinois' better play when he was on the court, nor should Jordan be solely blamed for Clemson's first-half run.  But against the Clemson press, McCamey was particularly valuable because he is the team's most credible ballhandler.  Jeff simply wasn't able to run the offense successfully against the press while Demetri kept the tempo slowed down, which had a double effect of improving the Illinois offense and the defense since they just had to play man-to-man rather than try to contain a series of Clemson fastbreaks.  Bruce Weber was quoted after the game as saying "He [McCamey] had two points, but he might have had the best game in his career."  A few years ago, I would have scoffed at such a statement, but basketball really sometimes can't be captured by the traditional stats, and the plus/minus chart from last night's game shows that (in corroboration with what I witnessed with my own eyes).

Overall, Illinois fans can now be justified in feeling optimistic about the team again.  I suspect they will still be up and down as Richardson and Paul learn how to play winning college basketball, but both of the freshmen played 30+ solid minutes last night and were productive on the offensive end.  You will see Illinois' rotation expand again as the team plays some easier opponents, but it looks to me like come postseason time, the roster will boil down to an 8-man rotation: the five starters, Dominique Keller, Jeff Jordan, and quite possibly, Bill Cole, whose hustle is evident every time he is out on the court.  I suspect Tyler Griffey, Alex Legion and Richard Semrau will be phased out as the season progresses, but I would be happy if any or all of them proved me wrong.  Next up:  Boise State!