Although I'm getting hyped up about basketball, I haven't lost interest in the Illini football team, which is still technically in the running for a bowl at 3-6. Tomorrow's game against Northwestern will provide an excellent opportunity to continue the team's recent win streak.
Illinois Passing vs. Northwestern Secondary:
EDGE: Illinois
If Jacob Charest can continue his good play from the Minnesota game, this is a favorable matchup for Illinois. Northwestern's secondary hasn't been much better than Illinois' meager unit. The Illini certainly have the receiving talent to exploit the Wildcat defensive backs. My one concern is that Northwestern has picked off 12 passes this year and Charest has been lucky to not have been intercepted so far this season.
Illinois Rushing vs. Northwestern Front:
EDGE: Illinois
Northwestern's strength has been against the run, where they have surrendered 116.5 yards per game as compared to Illinois' 162.2. The question is how the Wildcats will perform against the Illinois option attack. Last year they were able to shut Illinois down on the ground which fueled a 27-10 victory but in 2007 they were not. This is likely the key to the game for Illinois and I think they will prevail, but I am nervous that the option attack will fizzle with Charest at QB.
Northwestern Passing vs. Illinois Secondary:
EDGE: Northwestern
Wildcats QB Mike Kafka has a high completion percentage (66.2%) but a relatively low yards per attempt (6.7) meaning his forte is short, low-risk passes. His style is a good match against a weak Illinois secondary which usually lines up to prevent the big play and doesn't go for many interceptions (just 4 on the year).
Still, Illinois has a chance to outplay Northwestern here if they are able to generate a pass rush like they were against Minnesota. Last week, Adam Weber completed just 14 of 31 passes and threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown while being sacked seven times.
Northwestern Rushing vs. Illinois Front:
EDGE: Illinois
The reason Northwestern lags well behind Illinois in yards per play on offense (4.8 vs. 5.5) is because of its anemic rushing attack. Illinois is 25th nationally in rushing while Northwestern is 90th. Northwestern's leading rusher is QB Mike Kafka, at just 236 yards. With the defensive line improving, Illinois should be able to focus its attention on stopping the pass.
Special Teams:
EDGE: Northwestern
Northwestern is one of the worst punting teams in the country, at just 35.5 yards per punt, making mediocre Illinois P Anthony Santella look like an All-American. Yet neither team is adept at returning punts and kickoffs, and Northwestern has a big edge at kicker, as K Stefan Demos has hit 14 of 16 field goals this year while Matt Eller is struggling for the Illini, with just 4 of 10 field goals made.
Coaching:
EDGE: Northwestern
Illinois has the more talented roster but is 3-6 while Northwestern is already bowl-eligible at 6-4. The Wildcats are certainly not as good as their record would indicate, as their non-conference schedule consisted of Towson, Eastern Michigan and Miami (Ohio), but they always seem to win a few games they shouldn't under Pat Fitzgerald while Illinois can't say the same with Ron Zook. Illinois has been the better team than Northwestern this year in terms of yardage, despite playing a tougher schedule, but you have to credit Fitzgerald for Northwestern's greater success in the most important category: wins.
The Illini are the more talented team, are heading home, and are favored by 4.5 points. Still, this game makes me nervous because Pat Fitzgerald gets the most out of his players and Ron Zook often doesn't. I am still perplexed by Illinois' pathetic showing against Northwestern last year with a bowl berth on the line. All that said, Illinois is at home, confident, and Northwestern isn't as good as they were last year.
Pick: Illinois 28, Northwestern 21
