It is no foregone conclusion that Florida and Alabama will both be 12-0 when they meet for the SEC championship. In fact, the odds are only 51.9% that this will be the case. Alabama still has two potentially tricky road games against Mississippi State and Auburn while Florida goes on the road to play South Carolina this week.
The two mid-major gate crashers have the best odds at finishing undefeated. TCU is in a strong position with a game against Utah this weekend, as Utah has not played as well as their record would indicate. TCU is actually a 17 point favorite, and a 17 point win would look great to pollsters while improving the Horned Frogs' strength of schedule ratings. Plus, if they beat the Utes their odds of finishing undefeated will be close to 98%.
The next question is whether TCU or Boise State has a shot at playing for the national championship. I think TCU does but it's tough to predict how things will play out if the teams ahead of them lose. First, TCU will have to hope Cincinnati loses, as I think a 12-0 Big East champion would pass them in the pecking order, especially with three strong wins to close the season. Then, of course, the teams ahead of them will have to lose. Texas losing would be their best bet because I think the Florida/Alabama winner will be in even if one of them loses before the SEC Championship.
Let's say Texas plays Nebraska for the Big 12 Championship, which would put Texas' odds at finishing 13-0 at 66.4%. In this scenario, the odds of TCU finishing 12-0, Texas 12-1 and Cincinnati 12-1 are relatively high - 14.5%. Would 12-0 TCU beat out 12-1 Texas? I think so, especially if Texas lost the Big 12 title game. I'm hoping things play out this way (sorry, Boise State) because TCU has absolutely played well enough to be in the same territory as Texas, Florida and Alabama. SRS would only put them as a 4 point underdog on a neutral field against Texas (though I'm guessing Vegas would put it more in the 7-10 point range).
Overall, it's still more likely that the presumed Texas vs. Alabama/Florida championship will happen than it won't (I think) but things could still get rather interesting. Stay tuned!
