The question for Illinois fans tomorrow is of course, whether the 38-13 victory over Michigan was a fluke or a sign of an impending turnaround. Although I think the 25 point margin was fluky, there are real reasons to think that the Illini will be more formidable on offense from here on out, as they have finally discovered their running game. The bad news is that it's hard to imagine they will get away with only attempting to pass 12 times again. Furthermore, although the Illini's goal-line stand was impressive, they can't count on surrendering 13 points every week if they are giving up 377 yards at the same time. So we shouldn't expect that the Illini will suddenly be the team they were expected to be before the season, but they ought to be more competitive at the very least.
The next question, then, is what to expect from the Golden Gophers. The good news is that despite their 5-4 record, Minnesota has been outscored and outgained on the season. They also lost star WR Eric Decker to a season-ending injury (50 catches, 758 yards) before last week's 42-34 victory over Michigan State. Ironically, their scuffling offense found its mojo without Decker, as QB Adam Weber threw for 416 yards (beating his season high by almost 150 yards), and Minnesota posted its highest offensive output of the season in terms of both points and yards. Although I don't expect Weber to perform that well two weeks in a row, he has been successful against defenses not named Penn State or Ohio State (7.6 yards per attempt on the year) and has proven for the time being that Eric Decker was not the sole reason for his success.
Ultimately, I think the Illini will score some points since Minnesota's defense hasn't been particularly successful against the run (or the pass, for that matter) but will also give up points against a solid Gopher pass attack. I am tempted to pick Illinois since I suspect Minnesota will start to feel the loss of Decker this week, but they are at home, and it's tough to win on the road in conference. Still, I think Illinois will continue the momentum from last week and I wouldn't be shocked to see them pull out a second straight victory.
Pick: Minnesota 27, Illinois 24
