The 2009-10 Illinois basketball season begins for real tonight at 7:00 against SIU-Edwardsville. Here are some key questions Illinois will need to answer if they are to replicate or surpass last year's success.
1. How easily can Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham be replaced?
The plus-minus data I gathered last year suggests that Frazier and Meacham may have been the team's most valuable players. Illinois floundered offensively without Meacham in the lineup, not surprising given that his 113.7 Offensive Rating was by far the highest on the team. Similarly, Illinois' 4th-ranked defense was not the same when Frazier was off the court, and without him, Illinois succumbed to 12th seeded Western Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.
Frazier and Meacham will likely be replaced in the lineup by four-star freshmen D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, and although I have yet to see Richardson or Paul play, I am hearing the right kinds of buzzwords, and eventually the two will prove to be superior to the Frazier/Meacham combo. Like Meacham, Paul's responsibilities will be slanted more towards the offensive end, but Paul is a much more athletic guard, drawing 14 free throw attempts in 34 minutes in the two exhibition contests against Missouri Southern and Quincy (a valuable skill given that Illinois was dead last nationally in FTA/FGA in 2009). Meanwhile, Bruce Weber has been hyping up D.J. Richardson's defensive abilities, and Richardson is already more skilled offensively than Frazier, as witnessed by his 23 point performance against Quincy where he hit 5 of 8 3 pointers.
2. Can the defense repeat last year's performance (4th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency)?
Illinois will likely regress on defense, simply because their opponents shot 63.1% from the foul line, which is pure luck, and probably had a lot to do with Illinois' reversal of fortunes from 2008 (when their opponents shot 72% from the foul line - a rather unlucky figure). Looking further, Illinois opponents also shot just 29.6% from 3, which can be chalked up to both skill and luck - Illinois ought to be strong on the perimeter this year as well, but probably not quite that strong. In addition, the Illini's best defender, Chester Frazier, has graduated. The good news is that Illinois has never ranked lower than 35th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency during Bruce Weber's tenure and has ranked 21st or higher five years running. Thus I would expect Illinois to slide a bit, but Weber clearly has a system that works and coaches his players to gave maximum effort on defense.
3. How will Illinois score their points?
Bruce Weber has shown that his teams will defend at an elite level no matter what. But his offenses have been more dependent on his personnel. In 2004-2006, Illinois had a top 20 offense. Yet the last 3 years, as recruiting has tailed off, the Illini have ranked 111th, 83rd, and 98th. The offense was certainly a lot less ugly last year because the team was so much better at shooting but since their offensive rebound and foul drawing rates dropped precipitously, the team wasn't any more effective on a per-possession basis.
The Illini almost never got to the foul line last year - perhaps not surprising given that the starting lineup consisted of two thin, jump-shooting big men, two guards who preferred to bomb away from the three point line, and a senior leader who was a non-factor scoring the ball. The lack of free throws drawn isn't inherently bad, but Illinois didn't do enough in other categories to completely make up for it. Although the offense had a lot of good shooters, it didn't take many three-pointers, instead relying on the dreaded mid-range jumper, the least efficient shot in basketball. They managed to get away with it because the primary perpetrators (Tisdale and Davis) are both tall and accurate shooters, but unless Davis or Tisdale has developed three-point range, the Illini will have to start getting to the foul line. How many free throws the Illini can get will likely determine how good they can be this year. They drew 37 free throw attempts against Quincy, so hopefully that is a good sign.
My prediction? Eyeballing the schedule, I am unscientifically forecasting a regular season record of 11-7, 22-9 which will be good enough for a second straight NCAA appearance and to raise optimism for the 2010-11 campaign.
Oh yeah, and as for tonight's game SIU-Edwardsville is in their second year of transition from Division II to Division I and ranked 314th out of 344 teams in their 15 games against D-1 competition last year. As such, this ought to be a nice tuneup game for the Illini.
Pick: Illinois 81, SIU-Edwardsville 51
