Illinois 70, Ohio State 68

Finally, an Illini game I was able to watch and enjoy. My personal plus-minus is quite good over the last few weeks, considering that I didn't watch the losses to Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Penn State, and got back from class with 5:00 or so left in the Northwestern game (after which, of course, Illinois went on a 17-2 run to close the game and win by 1 point). The Illinois offense found sustenance after the 33-point debacle against Penn State, scoring 70 points in just 57 possessions thanks to shooting 58.3% from the field and 9-17 from 3. In so doing, the team won its third straight conference road game, quite a feat after beginning conference play 1-4 on the road.

Although I was rather pleased with the Illinois offense, one shouldn't overlook the fact that Ohio State scored 68 points in 57 possessions themselves, and indeed it was an uncharacteristically poor showing by an Illini defense ranked sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. In particular, their defense broke down at the end of the game. On four straight possessions, Thad Matta called a simple play where B.J. Mullens set a pick for Turner at the top of the key, giving Turner room to drive to the basket or pull up for a mid-range jumper. And on all four, he scored, although he twice had to get his own rebound to do so. I'm not sure if Illinois was executing poorly or if Turner is just that good, but it was quite frustrating to see Ohio State run the same play over and over without Illinois being able to stop it.

Plus-minus chart:

Player	P/M	Minutes
Demetri McCamey	-1	37
Trent Meacham	+2	39
Chester Frazier	-2	34
Mike Davis	+4	37
Mike Tisdale	+8	30
Calvin Brock	-1	11
Dominique Keller	-3	9
Jeff Jordan	+3	3

The Illini starters all played 30 or more minutes, and McCamey, Meacham and Davis all played 37 or more minutes. These are unusually high totals but given that their next game isn't until Thursday, this was a good strategy by Bruce Weber. As we are nearing the end of the season, I suspect that Weber will continue to shorten his rotation and play his starters more and more. The one player who stands out on the plus-minus chart is Mike Tisdale who was +8 in 30 minutes. Although Chester Frazier is probably Illinois' best player, Tisdale is in some ways the team's most important player, since Illinois doesn't bring any size off the bench. Keeping him on the court will be critical if Illinois goes up against any teams with size in the NCAA Tournament.

Plus-Minus Chart, Conference Play

Plus-minus chart, all conference games:

Player	On	Off	P/M	Minutes
Chester Frazier	+7.3	-13.5	+20.8	479
Mike Tisdale	+8.4	-2.8	+11.1	349
Trent Meacham	+5.7	+0.2	+5.4	402
Mike Davis	+5.3	+0.3	+5.1	419
Calvin Brock	+4.4	+3.9	+0.5	237
Demetri McCamey	+3.4	+6.8	-3.4	435
Jeff Jordan	+1.0	+4.3	-3.4	84
Alex Legion	-1.8	+6.8	-8.5	181
Dominique Keller	-1.7	+6.8	-8.6	183

(All numbers in this chart are in per-40 terms.)

I don't want to draw too many conclusions from this chart, given that it represents a fairly small sample size of minutes and given that each player's plus-minus numbers are obviously influenced by who they share the most court time with and who comes on when they go to the bench. Still, there are some clear trends worth noting. Generally, the Illinois starters are more effective than the Illinois bench. This is how things should look, ideally. Jordan and Brock seem to be reasonably effective off the bench, Legion and Keller less so.

The exception to this is Demetri McCamey. Although I don't doubt his playmaking abilities, he does have a reputation as an indifferent defender and he is very inconsistent on the offensive end. What this boils down to is that the team has been more effective with Brock in the game, although not by a huge amount. If I were Bruce Weber, I would at least experiment with handing Brock more minutes and see if the team could overcome the drop in scoring for the gains that would come in other areas.

What really stands out in this chart is that the team is 20.3 points per 40 better with Chester Frazier in the game, a number so huge that it cannot be dismissed due to small sample size. Although on-court, the team doesn't play any better with Frazier than with Tisdale, the team absolutely falls apart without Frazier. To me, this is a testament to how Chester has finally matured into the team leader Bruce Weber had always envisioned. He is a lockdown defender and no longer a massive liability on offense, even if he is a non-scorer.

Overall, it appears that Weber has done a fine job allocating minutes, with the possible exception of McCamey/Brock. Frazier logs heavy minutes in tight games, and that is exactly what the Illini want. Thus, the X-factor in close games is usually Mike Tisdale, who doesn't play as many minutes as the other starters since he often gets into foul trouble. When he is on the court, however, his shooting touch and size make him very valuable. I will try to keep updating these numbers as the season progresses, although they likely will not change much from game to game.

Penn State 38, Illinois 33

I truly hate to return from a 16-day hiatus to write about this horrorshow of a game, but so it goes. Over at Basketball Prospectus, John Gasaway writes: "clocking in at just 0.59 points per trip, the Illini’s evening ranks, it need hardly be said, as the single most futile outing posted by any major-conference offense in league play this year." Unfortunately the game was on Big Ten Network (as was the 59-36 debacle at Minnesota) so I can't say for sure what went so horribly wrong for the Illinois offense. Perhaps the answer is just that they had a fluky shooting slump, but considering this is the third time in seven games they've posted an eFG% of under 40, there seems to be a larger problem than just bad luck. I suppose you could commend the defense in this game, but when the point totals are this low, it's just bad basketball.

Here's a plus-minus chart for last night's game:

Player	P/M	Minutes
Demetri McCamey	-8	27
Trent Meacham	-5	34
Chester Frazier	+1	37
Mike Davis	-4	38
Mike Tisdale	+1	34
Calvin Brock	+4	12
Dominique Keller	-7	7
Jeff Jordan	+1	7
Alex Legion	-8	4

No one really stopped the bleeding, although Calvin Brock was +4 in his 12 minutes. McCamey was largely ineffective, battling the flu, and was -8 in just 27 minutes. Illinois also couldn't get much off the bench with the team being soundly outscored with Keller and Legion on the court. It's hard to explain an offensive debacle like this one, but I can only hope it's not an ominous sign for the team's NCAA future.

Illinois 62, Iowa 54

Although I again could not watch this game (curse the Big Ten Network!), the statistics are telling. Illinois returned to its hot-shooting ways (in the second half, at least) and held on for a needed, if unimpressive victory. Down 25-22 at the half and shooting 36%, the Illini shot 65% in the second half and outscored Iowa 40-29 over the last 20 minutes. And for this team, good shooting almost always means a victory. Crucially, Illinois also outrebounded Iowa 35-22 and drew 16 free throw attempts to Iowa's 4. Iowa is an even worse rebounding team than Illinois (311th in the country in offensive rebound percentage) so I wouldn't assume that Illinois has found their rebounding mojo yet.

Plus-minus chart:

Player	P/M	Minutes
Demetri McCamey	+9	33
Trent Meacham	+7	33
Chester Frazier	+10	36
Mike Davis	+4	30
Mike Tisdale	+10	24
Calvin Brock	+5	18
Dominique Keller	+0	8
Jeff Jordan	-5	4
Alex Legion	0	5

The difference here is largely between the starters and the bench although Calvin Brock did have a higher plus-minus than Mike Davis in this game. Mike Tisdale was +10 in just 24 minutes, continuing his recent trend of being very effective but seeing somewhat limited minutes. I am about ready to give up on Alex Legion - at least for this season anyways. It's obviously tough to join a team mid-season, especially a team clicking as well as Illinois was. It's probably tougher to have your minutes yanked around while being in theory, the most talented player on the team. Yet I can't blame Bruce Weber for being stingy with Legion's minutes considering he's shooting .315 from the field and .256 from 3 and hasn't made any sort of positive contribution in plus-minus when he's been on the floor.

Looking ahead to this week's games, they will be decisive in determining if Illinois is a Big Ten contender or just a middling team. According to the Pomeroy Ratings, Illinois has a 46% chance of beating Wisconsin on the road and a 52% chance of beating Purdue at home. Subjectively, I think Illinois is significantly more likely to defeat Purdue given that they are winning by 15.8 points per game at home in Big 10 play, yet losing by 8.8 points per game on the road. Still, given their performances over the last week, they will have to fight to avoid an 0-2 week and falling into Big 10 play. A 1-1 split or a 2-0 week will go a long way towards solidifying an NCAA Tournament berth.