Thursday, February 19, 2009

Plus-Minus Chart, Conference Play

Plus-minus chart, all conference games:
































PlayerOnOffP/MMinutes
Chester Frazier+7.3-13.5+20.8479
Mike Tisdale+8.4-2.8+11.1349
Trent Meacham+5.7+0.2+5.4402
Mike Davis+5.3+0.3+5.1419
Calvin Brock+4.4+3.9+0.5237
Demetri McCamey+3.4+6.8-3.4435
Jeff Jordan+1.0+4.3-3.484
Alex Legion-1.8+6.8-8.5181
Dominique Keller-1.7+6.8-8.6183




(All numbers in this chart are in per-40 terms.)

I don't want to draw too many conclusions from this chart, given that it represents a fairly small sample size of minutes and given that each player's plus-minus numbers are obviously influenced by who they share the most court time with and who comes on when they go to the bench. Still, there are some clear trends worth noting. Generally, the Illinois starters are more effective than the Illinois bench. This is how things should look, ideally. Jordan and Brock seem to be reasonably effective off the bench, Legion and Keller less so.

The exception to this is Demetri McCamey. Although I don't doubt his playmaking abilities, he does have a reputation as an indifferent defender and he is very inconsistent on the offensive end. What this boils down to is that the team has been more effective with Brock in the game, although not by a huge amount. If I were Bruce Weber, I would at least experiment with handing Brock more minutes and see if the team could overcome the drop in scoring for the gains that would come in other areas.

What really stands out in this chart is that the team is 20.3 points per 40 better with Chester Frazier in the game, a number so huge that it cannot be dismissed due to small sample size. Although on-court, the team doesn't play any better with Frazier than with Tisdale, the team absolutely falls apart without Frazier. To me, this is a testament to how Chester has finally matured into the team leader Bruce Weber had always envisioned. He is a lockdown defender and no longer a massive liability on offense, even if he is a non-scorer.

Overall, it appears that Weber has done a fine job allocating minutes, with the possible exception of McCamey/Brock. Frazier logs heavy minutes in tight games, and that is exactly what the Illini want. Thus, the X-factor in close games is usually Mike Tisdale, who doesn't play as many minutes as the other starters since he often gets into foul trouble. When he is on the court, however, his shooting touch and size make him very valuable. I will try to keep updating these numbers as the season progresses, although they likely will not change much from game to game.

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