Passing Defense

Despite the presence of first-round draft pick Vontae Davis in its secondary, Illinois did not have a very good passing defense in 2008. The team ranked just #71 in the country in Pass Efficiency Defense. A big part of the problem was the utter lack of interceptions by the Illini secondary - just 6 in 12 games. Losing Davis shouldn't be a big setback in this regard, since he only picked off 2 passes all year.

Unfortunately, the secondary was not distinctive in other areas either - ranking 66th in yards per attempt allowed (6.93) and 61st in completion percentage allowed (58.48%). Even more disturbing is the fact that the 2008 Illini generated a pretty good pass rush, ranking 17th nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss, yet the passing statistics were still grim.

On the linebacker front, Illinois does lose do-it-all MLB Brit Miller (132 tackles), which is a big concern, but returns the talented Martez Wilson. If Wilson can put it all together (and he does have a lot of starting experience), the linebackers' pass coverage will be improved.

Wilson will also have to play a big role in the pass rush, as Illinois has lost its top 4 pass rushers (in terms of sacks) from last season. There is still a lot of talent on the defensive line, but it's hard to envision a scenario where the pass rush will be as effective as in 2008, putting even more pressure on the secondary.

Interestingly, Illinois' performance against #1 receivers was not spectacular. The average #1 receiver Illinois faced averaged 4 catches and 58 yards per game, yet these same receivers averaged 5 catches and 75 yards against Illinois. Illinois did have some good performances against #1 receivers, holding first-round draft pick Jeremy Maclin to 4 catches and 31 yards, and Ohio State's Brian Robiskie to 2 catches and 9 yards. Yet there were also some miserable performances, as Michigan's Martavious Odoms went for 7 catches and 129 yards against Illinois, Northwestern's Eric Peterman for 8 catches and 111 yards, and Western Michigan's Jamarko Simmons for 11 catches and 174 yards, surely a big factor in Western's upset of the Illini.

The key question for 2009 is whether Vontae Davis was the one player preventing the secondary from being an outright disaster or if his athletic gifts weren't actually translating into on-field production. Most likely, losing Davis will hurt. Yet with some caveats, the team's performance against #1 receivers is an indicator that Davis wasn't playing up to his potential. He was a shutdown corner against Missouri and Ohio State but failed to staunch the bleeding against less renowned opponents like Northwestern and Western Michigan. This jibes with the reputation of Davis as a player who didn't always work hard. Indeed, Davis was even benched against Iowa because Ron Zook felt that he wasn't playing up to his potential.

Overall, the prognosis is mixed for the Illini pass defense. The secondary is deeper than last year, assuming the healthy returns of Miami Thomas and Donsay Hardeman to join returning starting corner Dere Hicks. But if the offense is as good as I think it will be, this unit will only need to be passable for Illinois to win a lot of games.