The Illini Passing Offense

Juice Williams

Last year, Juice made huge strides as a passer, throwing for over 3000 yards and averaging 8.33 yards per pass attempt, ranking 15th in the country in YPA. He certainly has come a long way from his freshman year when he completed under 40% of his passes. However, he also threw 16 interceptions to just 22 TDs. Thus, his AYPA was 7.59, which is still solid, but much lower than his raw YPA. In AYPA, Juice ranked 31st rather than 15th. Correspondingly, Illinois was just 40th nationally in points per game, despite ranking 19th in yards per game.

If the Illini offense is to be as explosive as I hope, Juice will have to continue his improvement. He has proved that he can generate yardage. Now he will have to cut down on his mental errors and improve his consistency, as some of his worst games of last year were against small-school teams like Eastern Illinois, Louisiana-Lafayette and Western Michigan. Fortunately, I have confidence in his ability to produce a stellar senior season. His AYPA has improved from 4.84 to 5.48 to 7.59 in his 3 years at Illinois, and by all accounts, he is a hard worker and wants to be remembered as an Illini great. Plus, the receiving corps should be a strength, as I will detail below.

Arrelious Benn

Thus far in his career, Arrelious Benn has lived up to the hype associated with being the #1 ranked receiver in his high school class. After a promising 54 catch, 676 yard season as a freshman, he followed up with 67 catches for 1005 yards as a sophomore.

I went back through play by play logs for last year and found that Benn was targeted on 104 passes. He caught 64.4% of them and averaged 10.1 yards per attempt. These numbers far outpace the numbers of the passing offense as a whole.

Illinois Passing, 2008	C	A	Y	C%	Y/A
Passes to Benn	67	104	1055	.644	10.1
Passes not to Benn	156	273	2177	.571	8.0

* It should be noted that Juice's 16 interceptions are not included on this table, as I can't always determine which receiver he was trying to throw to from the play by play. I don't think this affects things too much, unless he was targeting Benn on all of his interceptions.

Needless to say, Benn was a key reason that the Illini offense stayed on course and perhaps even improved after the defection of Rashard Mendenhall. Considering his physical gifts and rate of improvement thus far, it is well within the realm of possibility that Benn will enjoy a superlative season in 2009. He is capable of 1500 yards and I predict that he will finally catch a lot of TD passes as well (just 5 in his career so far). He is currently projected as a 1st round pick by nfldraftscout.com.

The major question mark with the passing offense is the offensive line. Illinois allowed 2.08 sacks per game last year (71st nationally) and lose two senior starters, including fifth-round pick Xavier Fulton. It is tempting to blame Juice for the sacks, but considering Illinois allowed just 1.23 sacks per game in 2007, it is clear that a lot of the struggles were the fault of the offensive line. This unit is not lacking in talent, however, and the three returning starters should show improvement, especially Jeff Allen, who took on a large role in just his second year with the team. I am optimistic that the line will show improvement this year, as they offer a fine blend of experience (Allen, All-Big 10 guard Jon Asamoah) and young talent (redshirt freshman Graham Pocic).

Overall, Illinois' passing offense is its biggest strength. As stated above, Juice ranked 31st nationally in AYPA and 15th nationally in YPA in 2008. If anything, the passing offense should be more potent this year with the addition of highly-touted Florida transfer Jarred Fayson, an older Arrelious Benn trying to impress NFL scouts and strong third and fourth receiving options in Jeff Cumberland and Michael Hoomanawanui. Guys like A.J. Jenkins, who averaged 26.1 yards per catch as a freshman (albeit on 11 catches) and freshman Terry Hawthorne, rated as the #6 WR in his class by rivals.com, will have a hard time cracking the receiving rotation due to its depth. If Illinois wants to contend for the Big 10 title, they will need to be unstoppable through the air, and they have a good chance at being just that.

Adjusted Yards per Passing Attempt

Generally, yards per pass attempt is the best simple method of evaluating the success of a quarterback (don't get me started on the esoteric QB Rating formula). But on this blog, I will use a formula called adjusted yards per attempt (AYPA), which also takes into account passing touchdowns, interceptions, and sack yardage.

AYPA: (Passing Yards + 20*Passing TDs - 45*Interceptions - Sack Yards Lost)/ (Sacks + Pass Attempts)

This formula is a good one on a number of levels. It includes sacks as pass plays rather than run plays, which is the correct distinction and one that NCAA statkeepers fail to recognize. It gives a moderate boost for passing TDs and a severe deduction for interceptions. It makes sense to me that an interception should be a bigger deduction than a passing TD is a boost. There are many situations where a QB doesn't have to do much to get a passing TD. An interception, though, is almost always crippling. It can give the opponent great field position, give up a potential offensive touchdown, or both. Still, I like the idea of giving some credit to the QB for a passing TD, as it does take skill to put the ball in the endzone even after marching most of the way down the field.

P.S. For my purposes in this blog, I will usually use the formula without sacks, since sack data is difficult to obtain for NCAA.

Offensive and Defensive Plus-Minus

I've updated the season-long plus-minus statistics and for the first time, I've broken them down into offensive and defensive plus-minus differentials. For now, I'm just going to post conference-play numbers for Illinois' top 7 players, due to some data gaps in my spreadsheets.

Team Offensive Efficiencies, On and Off-Court

Player	On	Min	Off	P/M
Trent Meacham	103.3	513	82.3	+21
Demetri McCamey	100.2	536	90.2	+10.1
Mike Davis	99.5	530	93.0	+6.5
Chester Frazier	98.7	584	94.1	+4.7
Mike Tisdale	99.1	430	96.4	+2.7
Calvin Brock	95.7	269	99.6	-3.8
Dominique Keller	94.4	225	99.9	-5.5
Jeff Jordan	90.5	97	99.0	-8.4
Alex Legion	90.5	184	101.0	-10.6

Team Defensive Efficiencies, On and Off-Court

Player	On	Min	Off	P/M
Mike Tisdale	85.0	430	103.8	+18.8
Chester Frazier	89.5	584	106.4	+16.9
Jeff Jordan	87.1	97	92.4	+5.3
Calvin Brock	89.4	269	93.7	+4.3
Mike Davis	92.1	530	91.7	-0.4
Alex Legion	94.4	184	91.5	-2.9
Dominique Keller	97.3	225	89.5	-7.8
Trent Meacham	95.0	513	83.1	-12.0
Demetri McCamey	96.3	536	76.5	-19.8

Things I take away from this chart:

- Demetri McCamey and Trent Meacham have fairly extreme values on both the offensive and defensive ends. Although I think it is true that both are more valuable on offense than defense, their numbers are skewed, probably because their backups are Jeff Jordan and Calvin Brock. Both Jordan and Brock come in for defensive purposes and are essentially non-scorers. Thus, McCamey and Meacham look worse on defense than they should and better on offense.
- That said, Meacham still rates as a net positive contributor while McCamey does not. Thus, McCamey's defensive liabilities, although not as severe as indicated by the chart, are still enough of a problem to mitigate his offensive contributions.
- By far, the two highest-rated players on the team are Mike Tisdale and Chester Frazier, both of whom contribute a small amount on offense and a huge amount on defense. The defense falls apart without them on the floor. In the case of Tisdale, I credit his height and the fact that Illinois has to go small when he's not on the court. As for Frazier, this chart is a testament to his one-on-one defensive abilities. Rarely do you see such a defensive impact from the guard position. Remind me to send in these statistics to the Big 10 coaches and writers, because Chester deserves to be Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year.

Michigan State 74, Illinois 66

My apologies for not getting up a recap or plus-minus chart of the Illinois-Minnesota game from Thursday. Suffice it to say that I was pleased that Illinois finally turned an ugly game to their advantage. This afternoon, on the other hand, was an atypical Big 10 affair, with both teams tallying 71 possessions. My feeling is that the pace was even quicker in the first half, with Michigan State looking for the fast break every time they got a rebound. Ultimately, I thought Illinois played hard and played well until their offense went dead in the last five minutes. Michigan State had visible advantages in both strength and athleticism, but Illinois was able to counteract those advantages for most of the game with intense play and the height of Mike Tisdale.

I'm not sure what went wrong in the last five minutes. Tom Izzo subbed in the rarely-used 6'11" Idong Ibok to guard Tisdale, which helped to shut down the Illinois offense. Still, Illinois actually lost control of the game while Tisdale was off the court in the final 90 seconds. Although I love Bruce Weber, Tisdale ought to have been on the floor at such a crucial juncture. Weber sometimes pulls Tisdale on defensive possessions at the end of games, which is bizarre to me given Tisdale's height and his excellent defensive plus-minus differential. Alas, it probably wouldn't have changed the outcome. Illinois fought hard, but this game was an indication that they won't be able to hang with the top teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Plus-minus chart:

Player	P/M	Minutes
Demetri McCamey	-12	34
Trent Meacham	-4	36
Chester Frazier	-11	35
Mike Davis	-12	38
Mike Tisdale	+8	32
Calvin Brock	-3	7
Dominique Keller	-4	9
Jeff Jordan	-5	6
Alex Legion	-3	3
Bill Cole	+2	0+
Bubba Chisholm	+2	0+
C.J. Jackson	+2	0+

I say it again and again, but plus-minus rewards unique commodities. Mike Tisdale, as a 7'1" player with a sweet jump shot, qualifies as just that. In this game, at least until the final few minutes, he was the one player Michigan State could not physically match up with and the plus-minus chart duly reflects that. Yet with no similarly-sized backup, Illinois often falters when he is off the floor. He is the key to the rest of the season, and perhaps, the next two seasons as we1l.

Illinois 70, Ohio State 68

Finally, an Illini game I was able to watch and enjoy. My personal plus-minus is quite good over the last few weeks, considering that I didn't watch the losses to Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Penn State, and got back from class with 5:00 or so left in the Northwestern game (after which, of course, Illinois went on a 17-2 run to close the game and win by 1 point). The Illinois offense found sustenance after the 33-point debacle against Penn State, scoring 70 points in just 57 possessions thanks to shooting 58.3% from the field and 9-17 from 3. In so doing, the team won its third straight conference road game, quite a feat after beginning conference play 1-4 on the road.

Although I was rather pleased with the Illinois offense, one shouldn't overlook the fact that Ohio State scored 68 points in 57 possessions themselves, and indeed it was an uncharacteristically poor showing by an Illini defense ranked sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. In particular, their defense broke down at the end of the game. On four straight possessions, Thad Matta called a simple play where B.J. Mullens set a pick for Turner at the top of the key, giving Turner room to drive to the basket or pull up for a mid-range jumper. And on all four, he scored, although he twice had to get his own rebound to do so. I'm not sure if Illinois was executing poorly or if Turner is just that good, but it was quite frustrating to see Ohio State run the same play over and over without Illinois being able to stop it.

Plus-minus chart:

Player	P/M	Minutes
Demetri McCamey	-1	37
Trent Meacham	+2	39
Chester Frazier	-2	34
Mike Davis	+4	37
Mike Tisdale	+8	30
Calvin Brock	-1	11
Dominique Keller	-3	9
Jeff Jordan	+3	3

The Illini starters all played 30 or more minutes, and McCamey, Meacham and Davis all played 37 or more minutes. These are unusually high totals but given that their next game isn't until Thursday, this was a good strategy by Bruce Weber. As we are nearing the end of the season, I suspect that Weber will continue to shorten his rotation and play his starters more and more. The one player who stands out on the plus-minus chart is Mike Tisdale who was +8 in 30 minutes. Although Chester Frazier is probably Illinois' best player, Tisdale is in some ways the team's most important player, since Illinois doesn't bring any size off the bench. Keeping him on the court will be critical if Illinois goes up against any teams with size in the NCAA Tournament.

Plus-Minus Chart, Conference Play

Plus-minus chart, all conference games:

Player	On	Off	P/M	Minutes
Chester Frazier	+7.3	-13.5	+20.8	479
Mike Tisdale	+8.4	-2.8	+11.1	349
Trent Meacham	+5.7	+0.2	+5.4	402
Mike Davis	+5.3	+0.3	+5.1	419
Calvin Brock	+4.4	+3.9	+0.5	237
Demetri McCamey	+3.4	+6.8	-3.4	435
Jeff Jordan	+1.0	+4.3	-3.4	84
Alex Legion	-1.8	+6.8	-8.5	181
Dominique Keller	-1.7	+6.8	-8.6	183

(All numbers in this chart are in per-40 terms.)

I don't want to draw too many conclusions from this chart, given that it represents a fairly small sample size of minutes and given that each player's plus-minus numbers are obviously influenced by who they share the most court time with and who comes on when they go to the bench. Still, there are some clear trends worth noting. Generally, the Illinois starters are more effective than the Illinois bench. This is how things should look, ideally. Jordan and Brock seem to be reasonably effective off the bench, Legion and Keller less so.

The exception to this is Demetri McCamey. Although I don't doubt his playmaking abilities, he does have a reputation as an indifferent defender and he is very inconsistent on the offensive end. What this boils down to is that the team has been more effective with Brock in the game, although not by a huge amount. If I were Bruce Weber, I would at least experiment with handing Brock more minutes and see if the team could overcome the drop in scoring for the gains that would come in other areas.

What really stands out in this chart is that the team is 20.3 points per 40 better with Chester Frazier in the game, a number so huge that it cannot be dismissed due to small sample size. Although on-court, the team doesn't play any better with Frazier than with Tisdale, the team absolutely falls apart without Frazier. To me, this is a testament to how Chester has finally matured into the team leader Bruce Weber had always envisioned. He is a lockdown defender and no longer a massive liability on offense, even if he is a non-scorer.

Overall, it appears that Weber has done a fine job allocating minutes, with the possible exception of McCamey/Brock. Frazier logs heavy minutes in tight games, and that is exactly what the Illini want. Thus, the X-factor in close games is usually Mike Tisdale, who doesn't play as many minutes as the other starters since he often gets into foul trouble. When he is on the court, however, his shooting touch and size make him very valuable. I will try to keep updating these numbers as the season progresses, although they likely will not change much from game to game.

Penn State 38, Illinois 33

I truly hate to return from a 16-day hiatus to write about this horrorshow of a game, but so it goes. Over at Basketball Prospectus, John Gasaway writes: "clocking in at just 0.59 points per trip, the Illini’s evening ranks, it need hardly be said, as the single most futile outing posted by any major-conference offense in league play this year." Unfortunately the game was on Big Ten Network (as was the 59-36 debacle at Minnesota) so I can't say for sure what went so horribly wrong for the Illinois offense. Perhaps the answer is just that they had a fluky shooting slump, but considering this is the third time in seven games they've posted an eFG% of under 40, there seems to be a larger problem than just bad luck. I suppose you could commend the defense in this game, but when the point totals are this low, it's just bad basketball.

Here's a plus-minus chart for last night's game:

Player	P/M	Minutes
Demetri McCamey	-8	27
Trent Meacham	-5	34
Chester Frazier	+1	37
Mike Davis	-4	38
Mike Tisdale	+1	34
Calvin Brock	+4	12
Dominique Keller	-7	7
Jeff Jordan	+1	7
Alex Legion	-8	4

No one really stopped the bleeding, although Calvin Brock was +4 in his 12 minutes. McCamey was largely ineffective, battling the flu, and was -8 in just 27 minutes. Illinois also couldn't get much off the bench with the team being soundly outscored with Keller and Legion on the court. It's hard to explain an offensive debacle like this one, but I can only hope it's not an ominous sign for the team's NCAA future.